JPMorgan beats expectations, but rising costs weigh on investor sentiment – analysis and forecast for JPM stock

JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Q3 2025 results exceeded market expectations, but investors remain concerned about rising expenses and loan write-offs.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) Q3 2025 results exceeded market expectations, with revenue reaching 47.1 billion USD and earnings per share coming in at 5.07 USD, driven primarily by strong market activity and a rise in investment banking fees. Compared with the same quarter in 2024, performance showed notable progress: revenue was up 9% year-on-year, market operations income rose 25%, and investment banking fees increased 16%.

Loan write-offs across the group totalled 2.6 billion USD, while the charge-off rate in the credit card segment declined to 3.15%.

Management reaffirmed its confident outlook for 2025, raising its guidance for net interest income to 95.8 billion USD and projecting total expenses of around 95.9 billion USD. For the card business, the expected charge-off ratio for 2025 is set at approximately 3.3%.

Market participants reacted cautiously to the report. On the first trading day following publication, JPMorgan shares fell 2%, despite the bank beating expectations on both revenue and earnings and slightly raising its 2025 net interest income forecast. Investors focused instead on less favourable details: Q4 2025 guidance included elevated operating expenses of 24.5 billion USD, higher credit costs, and a one-off charge of 170 million USD related to the bankruptcy of auto lender Tricolor. These factors outweighed the strong results in trading operations and deal-making, where revenues rose sharply.

This article covers JPMorgan Chase & Co., providing a fundamental analysis of JPM stock and an overview of key metrics from Q3 and Q4 2024 as well as Q1–Q3 2025, enabling comparison across periods. Based on the observed dynamics of JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s share performance, a technical analysis of JPM is also presented, forming the basis for the JPMorgan Chase & Co. stock forecast for 2025.

About JPMorgan Chase & Co.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. traces its origins to the Bank of the Manhattan Company, founded in 1799. The modern conglomerate was shaped by a long history of consolidation, culminating in the 2000 merger between Chase Manhattan Corporation and J.P. Morgan & Co. The company did not undergo an IPO, having been formed through successive mergers and acquisitions. Nevertheless, JPMorgan Chase shares are listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol JPM.

JPMorgan Chase provides a broad range of financial services, including investment and commercial banking, retail banking services, asset and wealth management, and risk and payment management solutions. It is the largest US bank by assets and one of the leading investment, commercial, and retail banking institutions. Globally, the company holds a prominent position in investment and financial services and is classified as a systemically important financial institution.

JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s main revenue streams

JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s revenue comes from several key sources:

• Consumer & Community Banking: the largest revenue segment, comprising income from retail banking, including interest on loans and deposits, credit card fees, ATM charges, and other banking services for individuals and small businesses.
• Corporate & Investment Bank: revenue generated from investment banking services, such as commissions on stock and bond offerings, advisory fees for mergers and acquisitions, and income from capital markets trading activities, including fixed income and equities.
• Commercial Banking: income from services provided to medium and large businesses, including loans, cash flow management, and other commercial banking services.
• Asset & Wealth Management: revenue from managing investments for institutional and individual clients, including asset management fees, withdrawals from deposit accounts, and other investment-related income.
• Net Interest Income: profit derived from the difference between interest earned on loans and investments and interest paid on deposits.

JPMorgan Chase’s revenue is highly diversified across a wide range of financial services, from retail to investment banking. This diversification enables the bank to maintain a stable revenue stream even amid changing market conditions.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. Q3 2024 results

Banks are traditionally the first to report earnings at the end of each quarter. JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Q3 2024 results are outlined below, compared with the corresponding period in 2023:

Revenue: 43.3 billion USD (+6%)

Net Income: 12.9 billion USD (-2%)

Earnings per Share (EPS): 4.37 USD (+1%)

Net Interest Income: 23.5 billion USD (+3%)

Consumer & Community Banking revenue: 17.8 billion USD (-3%)

Commercial & Investment Bank revenue: 17.0 billion USD (+8%)

Asset & Wealth Management revenue: 5.4 billion USD (+9%)

Corporate Revenue: 3.1 billion USD (+97%)

Assets under Management: 3.9 trillion USD (+23%)

Client Assets: 5.7 trillion USD (+23%)

In its commentary on the results, JPMorgan Chase’s management emphasised that the bank continues to deliver stable performance despite a challenging economic environment. Q3 2024 revenue exceeded expectations, although net income declined slightly due to higher provisions for credit losses. CFO Jeremy Barnum noted that consumers remain in a strong financial position and that the increase in provisions was driven by growth in the loan portfolio rather than any deterioration in credit quality.

The bank anticipated a gradual decline in net interest income (NII) during Q4 2024, potentially reaching a trough in mid-2025, followed by a recovery supported by loan portfolio expansion and higher credit card turnover. The bank identified the deteriorating geopolitical landscape, the sizable US budget deficit, and changes to existing trade agreements as potential risks.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. Q4 2024 results

JPMorgan Chase & Co. released its Q4 2024 statistics on 15 January 2025. As forecasted by the bank’s management, quarterly net interest income declined by 2%. Key highlights of the report are outlined below in comparison with the corresponding period in 2023:

Revenue: 42.8 billion USD (+11%)

Net Income: 14.0 billion USD (+50%)

Earnings Per Share (EPS): 4.81 USD (+58%)

Net Interest Income: 23.0 billion USD (-2%)

Consumer & Community Banking revenue: 18.4 billion USD (-6%)

Commercial & Investment Bank revenue: 17.6 billion USD (+18%)

Asset & Wealth Management revenue: 5.8 billion USD (+13%)

Corporate Revenue: 2.0 billion USD (+13%)

Assets under Management: 4.0 trillion USD (+18%)

Client Assets: 5.9 trillion USD (+18%)

The bank’s Chair and CEO, Jamie Dimon, noted that all business segments performed strongly. The Corporate and Investment Bank (CIB) saw strong client activity. There was also a double-digit increase in payment fees for four consecutive quarters, contributing to a record annual payment income. Retail banking continued to attract new clients across all areas, from consumer banking to asset management, resulting in nearly two million new accounts opening in 2024.

Dimon noted that the bank maintains a resilient balance sheet, including a loss-absorbing capacity of 547 billion USD and 1.4 trillion USD in cash and marketable securities. He assessed the US economy as steady, with a low unemployment rate and stable consumer spending. However, he highlighted two main risks: the potentially inflationary effects of future expenditure and geopolitical instability.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. forecast net interest income (excluding markets) of approximately 90 billion USD in 2025, a decrease of 2 billion USD compared to 2024.

The bank anticipated expenses of approximately 95.0 billion USD, representing an increase of 3.9 billion USD compared with 2024. The rise in costs was attributed by management to inflation.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. Q1 2025 results

JPMorgan Chase & Co. released its Q1 2025 statistics on 11 April 2025. The key highlights are provided below in comparison with the corresponding period in 2024:

Revenue: 45.3 billion USD (+8%)

Net Income: 14.6 billion USD (+9%)

Earnings per Share (EPS): 5.07 USD (+58%)

Net Interest Income: 23.4 billion USD (+1%)

Consumer & Community Banking Revenue: 18.3 billion USD (+4%)

Commercial & Investment Bank Revenue: 19.7 billion USD (+12%)

Asset & Wealth Management Revenue: 5.7 billion USD (+12%)

Corporate Revenue: 2.3 billion USD (+5%)

Assets under Management: 4.1 trillion USD (+15%)

Client Assets: 6.0 trillion USD (+15%)

JPMorgan Chase & Co. delivered strong results for Q1 fiscal 2025, exceeding Wall Street expectations. The primary growth drivers were the Investment Banking division and trading operations, with Investment Banking fees up by 12% and trading revenue up by 21%, including a record 3.8 billion USD in the equity markets segment.

However, Jamie Dimon warned of significant turbulence on the horizon, mentioning geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, the elevated budget deficit, and the threat of global trade wars. The bank also increased its provisions for potential credit losses to 3.3 billion USD, indicating rising risks of non-payment from consumers.

The increase in credit loss reserves is a signal of a dual nature. On the one hand, JPMorgan is demonstrating excellent financial results and resilience in its key businesses. On the other hand, growing macroeconomic risks could exert pressure on future profits.

Since the start of the year, JPMorgan’s share price has fallen by more than 5%, despite a strong quarterly report, indicating market caution. However, there were several advantages to long-term investment.

Firstly, JPMorgan remains a systemically important bank with a global network, resilient cash flow, and a diversified business model. It is one of the few banks capable of generating profits in any phase of the economic cycle – whether expansion, stagnation, or recession.

Secondly, JPMorgan’s dividend yield remains consistently high – as of April 2025, it stands at around 2.5-3% per annum. The company follows a policy of regular dividend increases, making the shares attractive to income-focused investors.

Thirdly, the bank is actively repurchasing its own shares. In Q1 2025, JPMorgan Chase & Co. pursued an active capital return policy, executing a buyback program worth 7.1 billion USD. This reflects confidence in its prospects and provides effective support for the share price. Buybacks not only return capital to shareholders but also reduce the number of shares in circulation, thereby increasing earnings per share over time.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. Q2 2025 results

JPMorgan Chase & Co. released its financial results for Q2 of the 2025 calendar year on 15 July 2025. Below are the key figures compared with the same period in 2024:

Revenue: 45.7 billion USD (-10%)

Net Income: 15.0 billion USD (-17%)

Earnings Per Share (EPS): 5.24 USD (-14%)

Net Interest Income: 23.3 billion USD (+2%)

Consumer & Community Banking Revenue: 18.8 billion USD (+6%)

Commercial & Investment Bank Revenue: 19.5 billion USD (+9%)

Asset & Wealth Management Revenue: 5.8 billion USD (+10%)

Corporate Revenue: 1.5 billion USD (-85%)

Assets Under Management: 4.3 trillion USD (+18%)

Client Assets: 6.4 trillion USD (+19%)

Despite a decline in both revenue and net income, JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s results for Q2 2025 surpassed analyst expectations. The bank reported net income of 15 billion USD and EPS of 5.24 USD, versus market expectations of around 4.96 USD, while revenue of 45.7 billion USD came in slightly above the consensus forecast.

Two business segments were particularly strong: the Commercial and Investment Banking division saw revenue rise 9%, with net income reaching 6.7 billion USD. This was supported by a 15% rise in trading income and a 7% increase in investment banking fees – a notable advantage in an environment of market volatility. Additionally, the Asset and Wealth Management division continued to perform well, with Assets Under Management climbing 18% to 4.3 trillion USD and fee income growing at a double-digit rate. This highlighted the bank’s diversified revenue model beyond interest margin income.

In terms of capital returns to shareholders, management announced a dividend increase to 1.40 USD per share based on Q2 results, and a further rise to 1.50 USD per share in Q3 2025. The bank also repurchased shares worth approximately 7 billion USD and reaffirmed its readiness to pursue selective M&A opportunities and organic growth initiatives, while maintaining a measured approach.

One of the key positive signals was the upward revision to full-year net interest income (NII) guidance. CFO Jeremy Barnum raised the forecast to 95.5 billion USD from 94.5 billion USD, citing steady loan growth across mortgages, auto loans, and credit cards. It was expected that credit card charge-offs would remain around 3.6%, indicating a controlled risk profile and potential for higher interest margins. The increase in dividend to 1.50 USD in Q3 underlines management’s confidence in the stability of cash flows.

The decline in overall revenue and profit was largely attributed to the high base effect. In Q2 2024, the bank recorded a significant one-off gain from its acquisition of First Republic. Additionally, net interest margins began to normalise as deposit rates increased, and loan growth slowed.

The sharp fall in revenue within the Corporate segment was due to the absence of such one-off gains in Q2 2025. In 2024, the bank reported a bargain purchase gain of over 8 billion USD. The latest figures represent a more typical earnings level for this division.

Nonetheless, management remained cautious. CEO Jamie Dimon once again highlighted several risks – tariff tensions, fiscal deficits, geopolitical challenges, and overheating in certain asset classes. In addition, the level of non-performing assets remained elevated at around 11.4 billion USD, particularly in the credit card and corporate lending segments.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. Q3 2025 results

On 14 October 2025, JPMorgan Chase & Co. released its financial results for Q3 2025. The key figures compared with the same period in 2024 are as follows:

Revenue: 47.1 billion USD (+9%)

Net Income: 14.4 billion USD (+12%)

Earnings Per Share (EPS): 5.07 USD (+16%)

Net Interest Income: 24.1 billion USD (+2%)

Consumer & Community Banking Revenue: 19.5 billion USD (+9%)

Commercial & Investment Bank Revenue: 19.9 billion USD (+17%)

Asset & Wealth Management Revenue: 6.1 billion USD (+12%)

Corporate Revenue: 1.7 billion USD (-45%)

Assets Under Management: 4.6 trillion USD (+18%)

Client Assets: 6.8 trillion USD (+20%)

JPMorgan’s Q3 2025 results came in above market expectations. Net income totalled 14.4 billion USD, with EPS at 5.07 USD (versus a consensus forecast of roughly 4.85 USD). Revenue reached 47.1 billion USD, up 9% year-on-year, supported mainly by strong trading and investment banking activity. Compared with the previous quarter, profit was down slightly (−4%), primarily due to higher expenses and increased provisions for potential credit losses.

The Commercial and Investment Bank division generated 19.9 billion USD (+17% y/y), driven by a 16% rise in fees and 25% growth in trading income. The Consumer & Community Banking segment contributed 19.5 billion USD (+9% y/y), with card spending up 9% and the charge-off rate falling from 3.4% in the previous quarter to 3.15%. The Asset & Wealth Management business also delivered solid growth: assets under management rose to 4.6 trillion USD (+18%), and segment profit reached 1.7 billion USD.

The bank continued to return capital to shareholders, paying 4.1 billion USD in dividends and repurchasing 8 billion USD in shares during the quarter. Return on tangible common equity (ROTCE) stood at 20%, reflecting strong business efficiency.

Management raised its full-year 2025 guidance for net interest income to 95.8 billion USD. For Q4, the bank expects around 25 billion USD in interest income and approximately 24.5 billion USD in expenses. The forecast for card charge-offs has also been slightly improved.

The main challenges in Q3 were linked to higher credit costs, which totalled 3.4 billion USD, including both charge-offs and new provisions. Part of this expense stemmed from losses following the bankruptcy of auto lender Tricolor (about 170 million USD). Management noted that future results could be influenced by geopolitical tensions, potential new tariffs, persistent inflation, and a possible deterioration in credit quality.

Overall, Q3 2025 can be considered a strong quarter for JPMorgan: revenue and profit exceeded expectations, and core business lines continued to expand. However, rising expenses and the need for closer credit-risk oversight remain key areas of concern.

Fundamental analysis of JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Below is the fundamental analysis of JPM following the Q3 2025 results:

• Capital adequacy and resilience: JPMorgan Chase maintains a strong capital buffer, with a Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio of 14.8%, well above regulatory minimums. The bank’s total equity stands at approximately 287 billion USD. Even after paying dividends and conducting share buybacks, the capital level has remained stable, reflecting a robust financial foundation.
• Liquidity and funding structure: JPMorgan holds 1.51 trillion USD in liquid assets, including 241 billion USD in excess liquidity. The Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) stands at 110–117%, meaning the bank has more than enough liquid assets to cover potential deposit outflows.

Average deposits increased to 2.53 trillion USD, while total loans reached 1.4 trillion USD, resulting in a loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) of around 55%. This indicates that the bank relies primarily on customer deposits for funding and has minimal dependence on external borrowing – a conservative and stable structure.

• Dividends and share buybacks: During the past quarter, the bank paid 4.1 billion USD in dividends (1.50 USD per share) and repurchased shares worth 8 billion USD. Combined, these distributions total 12 billion USD, representing 84% of quarterly net profit (14.4 billion USD). All shareholder returns were fully funded by current earnings – the bank did not draw on reserves.

In addition, a new share repurchase program of up to 50 billion USD remains in place, to be executed at management’s discretion.

• Earnings quality: Quarterly net profit reached 14.4 billion USD, up 12% year-on-year. Total revenue rose 9% to 47.1 billion USD, while net interest income increased 2%, reflecting a stable core earnings base.

Expenses grew 8% to 24.3 billion USD, with return on equity (ROE) at 17% and return on tangible common equity (ROTCE) at 20% – an excellent level for a global bank of this scale.

• Credit quality and risk: The bank set aside 3.4 billion USD in credit provisions, including 2.6 billion USD in charge-offs and 0.8 billion USD in new reserves for potential losses. The credit card charge-off rate stood at 3.15%, within the normal range, indicating stable asset quality.

Conclusion of the fundamental analysis of JPM:

JPMorgan’s financial position remains exceptionally strong. The bank has ample capital and liquidity, with most funding sourced from customer deposits. The loan-to-deposit ratio of around 55% underscores low structural risk, while book value per share continues to grow.

Profitability remains stable: core interest income is steady, and fees from client services, payment operations, and investment banking are rising. However, parts of the revenue base – namely trading and investment banking – remain sensitive to market activity and may fluctuate.

Risks include a gradual increase in credit card losses and the sensitivity of net interest income to rate movements and higher operating costs.

Overall, the bank retains a substantial capital buffer, enabling JPMorgan to continue paying dividends and executing share buybacks while maintaining balance-sheet resilience and prudent risk control.

Analyst forecasts for JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s stock for 2025

• Barchart: 14 out of 28 analysts rated JPMorgan Chase & Co. shares as a Strong Buy, 3 as a Moderate Buy, 10 as Hold, and 1 as a Strong Sell. The upper-end forecast reaches 370 USD, while the lower-end forecast stands at 240 USD.
• MarketBeat: 15 out of 27 analysts assigned the stock a Buy rating, 9 recommended Hold, and 3 advised Sell. The upper-end forecast is 370 USD, with the lower bound at 235 USD.
• TipRanks: 13 out of 19 analysts rated the shares as Buy and 6 as Hold. The top-end forecast stands at 350 USD, and the lower-end forecast at 291 USD.
• Stock Analysis: 3 out of 14 experts rated JPMorgan Chase & Co. shares as a Strong Buy, 7 as Buy, and 4 as Hold. The upper-end forecast reaches 350 USD, with the lower bound at 285 USD.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. stock price forecast for 2025

On the weekly chart, JPMorgan shares are trading in an uptrend and have broken above the upper boundary of the ascending channel, which previously acted as resistance. In similar cases, such a breakout often signals the potential for further price appreciation. Based on the current performance of JPMorgan Chase & Co. shares, the possible scenarios for JPM’s movement in 2025 are as follows:

Base-case (bullish) forecast for JPM stock:

This scenario assumes a breakout above resistance at 317 USD, followed by a further rise towards 365 USD.

Alternative forecast for JPM shares:

If the price breaks below the channel line, JPM shares could correct towards support near 250 USD, from which a renewed upward movement is likely to begin.

Risks of investing in JPMorgan Chase & Co. stock

Investment risks for JPMorgan Chase’s shares include the following factors:

• Resurgence of inflation: if inflation begins to rise again, the Federal Reserve may be forced to delay interest rate cuts or, worse, raise rates further. This could lead to a wave of loan delinquencies, requiring higher provisions for credit losses and resulting in increased write-offs under this line of expense.
• Rising deposit interest rates: if policy rates increase, the bank will also need to raise deposit rates to stay competitive or risk customer attrition. The resulting rise in interest payments on deposits would negatively impact the bank’s profitability.
• Decline in stock indices: as investment banking currently generates the strongest revenue growth, a fall in stock indices could adversely affect JPMorgan Chase’s investment operations. This could also impact the credit sector, as stocks are often used as collateral for loans.
• Trade War: The tariffs imposed by the Trump administration could negatively impact JPMorgan's revenue. Increases in tariffs typically lead to higher business costs, reduced consumer demand, and a slowdown in economic activity. This, in turn, lowers demand for banking services as companies become more cautious, reducing their activity in the capital markets and scaling back mergers and acquisitions, which diminishes JPMorgan’s fee income. Furthermore, if trade tensions persist, the bank’s global clients may scale back investment plans, freeze export flows, and reduce overall activity, which would negatively impact all areas of the bank’s operations – from hedging and foreign exchange to traditional lending.

Risks associated with inflation, interest rates, and trade wars pose significant threats to JPMorgan Chase’s earnings. These factors should be carefully considered when assessing the investment appeal of the bank’s shares.

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