CrowdStrike reports better-than-expected results and may be nearing the end of its correction

CrowdStrike has overcome the impact of the Falcon outage in 2024, and is showing a steady recovery in its financial performance, surpassing market expectations.

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: CRWD) reported revenue of 1.17 billion USD (+21% year-on-year) and non-GAAP EPS of 0.93 USD, exceeding market expectations of around 1.15 billion USD in revenue and 0.83 USD in earnings per share. Subscription revenue reached 1.10 billion USD (94% of total revenue), while professional services contributed 66 million USD. ARR climbed to 4.66 billion USD (+20% year-on-year) with a record Net New ARR of 221 million USD, pointing to sustained demand and an expanding client base.

Margins and cash flow remain strong: non-GAAP operating profit came in at 255 million USD (22% margin), operating cash flow was 333 million USD, and free cash flow totalled 284 million USD (24% of revenue). Subscription gross margin remains at 80%, while the overall non-GAAP margin stood at 78%.

The weak spot was the cautious Q3 guidance: revenue is expected at 1.208–1.218 billion USD, slightly below the consensus estimate of 1.23 billion USD. However, the non-GAAP EPS forecast of 0.93–0.95 USD was above expectations, and the full-year outlook was modestly raised.

Investor reaction was mixed but ultimately positive. Trading opened with a gap down of around 3% due to the cautious Q3 revenue forecast and mention of one-off remediation costs. However, over the course of the day, market focus shifted to the actual results: better-than-expected revenue and earnings, record Net New ARR, robust free cash flow, and a slightly upgraded full-year outlook. Against this backdrop, dip-buying activity and partial short covering intensified. By the close of the session, the shares were up by about 4.5%, reflecting investor preference for the resilience of the subscription model and cash generation despite the conservative near-term guidance.

This article examines CrowdStrike Holdings, outlines its business model, provides a fundamental analysis of CrowdStrike’s results, and includes a technical analysis of CRWD shares based on their current dynamics, forming the basis for a forecast for CRWD for 2025.

About CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc., founded in 2011, is a US-based cybersecurity company. It is known for providing cloud-based solutions that protect against cyberattacks, information security threats, and e-commerce fraud.

On 12 June 2019, CrowdStrike went public on the NASDAQ exchange under the CRWD ticker symbol. Its share price surged by 70% on the first day of trading, closing at 58 USD.

The company’s flagship product is the CrowdStrike Falcon platform. This cloud-based cybersecurity solution uses artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning, and big data analytics to detect, neutralise, and prevent cyber threats in real time.

Key business segments of CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.

CrowdStrike Holdings’ key lines of business include:

• Endpoint security: CrowdStrike Falcon provides security for electronic devices, including computers, servers, and mobile devices. It helps detect and prevent unauthorised intrusions such as viruses, ransomware, and other malicious software
• Incident management and response: the company provides services for the rapid response to security incidents and detailed investigations of cyberattacks. This enables organisations to address the consequences of data breaches or system compromises
• Threat intelligence: CrowdStrike provides information analytics and cyber threat data, helping organisations better understand attack sources, trends, and existing vulnerabilities
• Cloud protection: the company’s solutions protect data and infrastructure in the cloud, including services such as AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.’s main revenue streams

The main revenues reported by CrowdStrike include:

• Software as a Service (SaaS) subscription: CrowdStrike’s primary revenue stream comes from subscriptions to the CrowdStrike Falcon platform. This allows clients to flexibly use its cloud-based solutions, paying for access based on the number of protected devices or other parameters
• Professional services: the company also earns from consulting, incident management, and security system audits

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. Q2 FY2025 report

CrowdStrike Holdings delivered strong results for Q2 fiscal 2025. Below are the key figures compared to the same period last year:

• Revenue: 963.90 million USD (+32%)
• Net income: 2676 million USD (+44%)
• Earnings per share: 1.04 USD (+40%)
• Gross margin: 75.37% (+133 basis points)
• Subscription revenue: 918.30 million USD (+33%)
• Professional services revenue: 45.60 million USD (+10%)

Compared to the previous year, the company demonstrated solid growth in revenue, profitability, and subscription revenue, confirming the strong demand for CrowdStrike’s cybersecurity solutions. Clients’ subscriptions to the company’s services remain its primary revenue stream.

Following the software incident, CrowdStrike’s management revised its 2024 revenue forecast downwards. Annual revenue was projected to range between 3.89 and 3.90 billion USD, lower than the previous forecast of 3.97-4.00 billion USD. Adjusted EPS was expected to be between 3.61 and 3.65 USD, down from the prior estimate of 3.88 USD. The company’s management explained the downward revision due to a potential negative impact from the payment of 60 million USD in compensation to clients related to the outage.

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. Q3 FY2025 report

On 26 November 2024, CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. released its report for Q3 of fiscal 2025, which ended on 31.10.2024. Below is a summary of the report’s key data:

• Revenue: 1.01 billion USD (+29%)
• Net income: 234.25 million USD (+18)
• Earnings per share: 93 USD (+13)
• Gross margin: 75.24% (+63 basis points)
• Subscription revenue: 962.73 million USD (+31%)
• Professional services revenue: 47.44 million USD (-9%)

In the Q3 FY2025 report, CrowdStrike’s management highlighted strong growth across key financial indicators. Notably, the incident, caused by a faulty software update that affected Microsoft Windows systems worldwide and led to significant disruptions, did not have a severe impact on the company’s revenue or profit.

Given the increased demand for cybersecurity solutions, management remains confident in CrowdStrike’s long-term growth trajectory. The revenue forecast for Q4 FY2025 has been raised to 1.02-1.03 billion USD, with income expected to be between 210.90 and 215.80 million USD.

CEO George Kurtz reaffirmed that the company remains focused on AI-driven cybersecurity innovations and on expanding its product portfolio. CrowdStrike is also expected to maintain strong momentum in attracting and retaining clients through the continued development of cloud security and personal data protection solutions.

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. Q4 FY2025 report

On 4 March, CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. released its report for Q4 fiscal 2025, which ended on 31.01.2025. Below are its key highlights:

• Revenue: 1.06 billion USD (+25%)
• Net income: 2695 million USD (+10%)
• Earnings per share: 1.03 USD (+8%)
• Gross margin: 78.00% (unchanged)
• Subscription revenue: 1.00 billion USD (+26%)
• Professional services revenue: 522 million USD (+2%)

In comments on the report, CEO George Kurtz highlighted a 23% increase in annual recurring revenue (ARR) to 4.24 billion USD, including a record 223.90 million USD of new net ARR. Kurtz said, “CrowdStrike had a great Q4, ending an amazing year.” He emphasised that the introduction of AI in cybersecurity is becoming critical, with leak prevention requiring a platform initially built on such technologies.

CFO Burt Podbere highlighted the company’s stability, reporting 31% annual growth in subscription revenue, an operating cash flow of 1.38 billion USD, and a free cash flow of 1.07 billion USD. He said, “These results underscore our operating discipline and position us well to deliver quality services to clients and shareholders.”

CrowdStrike anticipates significant growth in the 2026 fiscal year, driven by demand for the Falcon platform and expanding market opportunities. In Q1 FY2026, which ends on 30 April 2025, revenue is projected to grow by 25% to 1.05 billion USD. Operating profit is expected to range between 252.80 million USD and 258.10 million USD, with diluted EPS between 0.98 USD and 0.99 USD. For the full fiscal year, revenue growth may reach 23-24%, ranging between 4.63 billion USD and 4.67 billion USD, and operating profit is projected to be between 1.09 billion USD and 1.13 billion USD, with EPS between 4.27 USD and 4.40 USD.

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. Q1 FY2026 report

On 3 June, CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. published its report for Q1 of fiscal year 2026, which ended on 30 April 2026. Key figures are as follows:

• Revenue: 1.10 billion USD (+20%)
• Net profit: 184.70 million USD (-6%)
• Earnings per share: 73 USD (-7%)
• Gross margin: 78.00% (-100 bps)
• Subscription segment revenue: 1.05 billion USD (+20%)
• Professional services segment revenue: 52.66 million USD (+8%)

CrowdStrike Holdings’ Q1 FY2026 financial results demonstrate steady growth and support a positive outlook for investors in the cybersecurity sector. Annual recurring revenue (ARR) reached 4.44 billion USD, up 22% year-on-year. The customer retention rate of 97% underscores the enduring value of the AI-powered, cloud-based Falcon platform, which continues to strengthen the company’s position as a leader in cyber threat protection.

The Falcon Flex subscription model delivered significant growth, with total deal value reaching 3.2 billion USD across more than 820 accounts – six times higher than the previous year. This offering is driving broader adoption of the platform’s modules: 48% of customers now use six or more modules, 32% use seven or more, and 22% use eight or more.

The company’s results demonstrated strong liquidity. Operating cash flow reached a record 384 million USD, while free cash flow stood at 279 million USD. These funds will support a 1 billion USD share repurchase program approved by the board of directors, reflecting management’s confidence in the company’s long-term stability and financial strength. At current share prices, the company could repurchase approximately 3% of its outstanding capital. Cash reserves of 4.61 billion USD provide financial flexibility for further investments and strategic initiatives.

The quarter also included a record-breaking major deal with a Fortune 100 healthcare company that had previously used Microsoft solutions and experienced a security breach. The CrowdStrike team rapidly deployed over 46,000 sensors, stopped the attack, and migrated the client to the Falcon platform – including Falcon Complete Identity, Falcon Cloud Security, LogScale Next-Gen SIEM, and Charlotte AI modules – replacing more than three previous vendors and reducing the number of agents by 75%.

The Q2 FY2026 forecast guided to revenue in the range of 1.145–1.152 billion USD (up 17–18% year-on-year) and non-GAAP EPS of 0.82–0.84 USD. For the full fiscal year, revenue is expected at 4.74–4.80 billion USD (up 23–25%), with non-GAAP EPS projected at 3.44–3.56 USD, pointing to potential margin improvement in the second half of the year. Growth in net new ARR is also expected to accelerate, supported by the success of Falcon Flex and the company’s strong competitive advantages.

The incident of 19 July 2024, caused by an incorrect update to the Falcon sensor, affected the company’s financial performance, leading to losses of 39.7 million USD and raising potential reputational risks. Nevertheless, strategic partnerships with Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG), and NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA), together with ongoing market consolidation around the CrowdStrike platform, reinforce the company’s position.

For investors, the report confirmed the company’s resilient business model, supported by strong cash flow, a flexible product offering, and a strategic share buyback program, making CrowdStrike Holdings an attractive investment opportunity in the cybersecurity sector.

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. Q2 FY2026 financial report

On 27 August, CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. released its report for Q2 FY2026, which ended on 31 July 2026. The key figures are as follows:

• Revenue: 1.17 billion USD (+21% year-on-year)
• Net income: 237.40 million USD (+7% year-on-year)
• Earnings per share (EPS): 93 USD (+6% year-on-year)
• Gross margin: 78.00% (-100 bps)
• Subscription revenue: 1.10 billion USD (+20% year-on-year)
• Professional services revenue: 66.00 million USD (+45% year-on-year)

In Q2 FY2026, the company delivered strong results: revenue reached 1.17 billion USD, up 21% year-on-year and 6% higher than in the previous quarter. This exceeded analyst expectations on both revenue and earnings, with adjusted EPS at 0.93 USD versus forecasts of around 0.83–0.91 USD. Subscriptions remained the primary revenue driver at approximately 1.10 billion USD (94% of total revenue), while professional services contributed about 66 million USD. Growth was slightly faster than in the prior quarter, primarily driven by the acceleration of the subscription business (Annual Recurring Revenue, ARR).

Total ARR reached 4.66 billion USD, an increase of 20% year-on-year, while net new ARR for the quarter came in at a record 221 million USD. Management highlighted the acceleration in new subscription growth and expects this metric to increase at a rate of at least 40% year-on-year in the second half of the fiscal year.

The subscription business continues to deliver strong gross margins – 77% under GAAP and 80% under non-GAAP. The overall adjusted gross margin was about 78%. The non-GAAP operating margin stood at 22%, slightly below last year’s level, with operating profit on this measure at 255 million USD. On a GAAP basis, the company reported an operating loss of 113 million USD, driven by one-off expenses related to last year’s Falcon outage as well as higher personnel and stock-based compensation costs. Cash flow remained robust: free cash flow totalled 284 million USD, representing around 24% of revenue.

The Q3 FY2026 outlook calls for revenue in the range of 1.208–1.218 billion USD, slightly below analyst consensus (around 1.23 billion USD), while adjusted EPS is forecast at 0.93–0.95 USD, ahead of market expectations. Management did not provide precise guidance on free cash flow for the quarter, but expects to achieve a margin of around 27% in Q4 and above 30% in FY2027. For the full fiscal year 2026, revenue is projected at 4.749–4.806 billion USD and adjusted EPS at 3.60–3.72 USD. Management also noted that new subscription growth is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year.

Fundamental analysis of CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.

Below is the fundamental analysis of CRWD following the Q2 FY2026 results:

• Liquidity and Balance Sheet: cash and equivalents at the end of Q2 FY2026 stood at around 4.97 billion USD. Debt consists of senior notes with a 3.00% coupon maturing in February 2029, totalling approximately 750 million USD. In addition, an undrawn credit facility of 750 million USD remains available. Deferred revenue continues to run at high levels: total deferred revenue reached 3.83 billion USD, of which 2.78 billion USD is current. Total remaining performance obligations amounted to 7.2 billion USD, with around 52% to be recognised within the next twelve months, providing strong visibility on future revenue
• Cash Flow and Capital Allocation: free cash flow in Q2 FY2026 was 284 million USD. As the subscription base scales, management is targeting higher FCF margins in the second half of the year and beyond. The company does not pay dividends, focusing instead on reinvesting in products and the platform, as well as expanding contracts. Priorities include accelerating net new ARR and improving efficiency. For FY2026, management forecasts revenue of 4.75–4.81 billion USD and non-GAAP EPS of 3.60–3.72 USD, implying further improvement in cash generation alongside continued growth
• Profitability and Margins: the non-GAAP gross margin was 78% (80% for subscriptions), while the non-GAAP operating margin stood at 22%, with an operating profit of approximately 255 million USD. On a GAAP basis, the quarter was loss-making due to one-off and compensation-related factors, but non-GAAP profit reached 237.4 million USD (EPS 93 USD). The margin profile remains strong for a large SaaS (Software as a Service) company, and management’s focus on efficiency is evident in the combination of double-digit revenue growth (+21% year-on-year) and stable operating margins

Conclusion of the fundamental analysis of CRWD: CrowdStrike’s financial strength remains high. The company has a net cash position, operates a predictable subscription model with strong gross margins, is delivering record net new ARR, and is generating resilient free cash flow. Management provides a conservative but reliable outlook, highlighting stronger cash generation in the second half of the year. However, at a share price of 424 USD, investors are already assuming that the company will be able to re-accelerate subscription revenue growth (ARR) and gradually increase profitability to the level of leading SaaS peers that meet the Rule of 40. For long-term investors, this means either waiting for a more attractive entry point or accepting higher risk with the expectation that faster financial growth will eventually justify the current valuation.

Expert forecasts for CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. stock for 2025

• Barchart: 27 of 48 analysts rated CrowdStrike Holdings stock as Strong Buy, 3 as Moderate Buy, 17 as Hold, and 1 as Strong Sell. The upper price target is 575 USD, with the lower bound at 343 USD
• MarketBeat: 19 of 44 analysts assigned a Buy rating to the shares, while 25 recommended Hold. The upper price target is 555 USD, and the lower bound is 285 USD
• TipRanks: 25 of 40 analysts advised Buy, and 15 recommended Hold. The upper price target is 575 USD, and the lower bound is 343 USD
• Stock Analysis: 12 of 45 analysts rated the stock as Strong Buy, 16 as Buy, and 17 as Hold. The upper-end forecast is 555 USD, while the lower end is 285 USD

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. stock price forecast for 2025

On the weekly chart, CrowdStrike Holdings shares are trading within an upward channel. In July 2025, the price bounced off the upper line of the channel and began to decline, which in this context is viewed as a correction within the broader uptrend. The Q2 FY2026 results were received positively by investors, with the stock closing up 4.5% on the first trading day after the release. This may signal the end of the correction and the start of a new upward move. Based on the current dynamics of CrowdStrike Holdings’ stock performance, the two possible forecast scenarios for CRWD in 2025 are as follows:

• Base forecast for CrowdStrike Holdings shares: this scenario assumes a test of support at 390 USD, followed by a rebound and a move higher towards the historical peak at 515 USD
• Negative forecast for CrowdStrike Holdings stock: this scenario assumes a break below support at 390 USD. In this case, the share price could decline to 300 USD. Given the company’s strong financial position, this level may prove attractive to long-term investors, potentially triggering a sharp increase in demand for CRWD shares and a subsequent recovery. The first upside target in such a rebound would be resistance at 390 USD

Risks of investing in CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.

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Investing in CrowdStrike Holdings shares carries certain risks, including the ones listed below:

• Competition in the cybersecurity market: the cybersecurity sector is competitive, with players such as Palo Alto Networks and Zscaler offering similar solutions. If competitors implement innovations at a greater pace, offer lower prices, or combine services more effectively, CrowdStrike could lose market share, which could affect its share price
• Software failures: the incident on 19 July, caused by an error in the Falcon platform update, was a serious test of CrowdStrike’s reputation. A recurrence of such an event poses risks to revenue growth and could affect CrowdStrike’s ability to secure major contracts, particularly in the public and financial sectors.
• Macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty: an economic downturn or budget cuts for businesses could reduce spending on cybersecurity, even if it is considered a critical need. Additionally, geopolitical issues, such as trade restrictions or sanctions affecting CrowdStrike’s international operations, may slow growth in key markets
• Post-acquisition integration problems: CrowdStrike is actively growing through acquisitions. If integration efforts fail, revenue growth may stall as resources are redirected to resolve these issues
• Market saturation: as cybersecurity becomes essential for many organisations, the total addressable market could contract if the sector reaches saturation. Should CrowdStrike fail to innovate or expand into new segments, revenue growth is likely to slow

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