US 500 forecast: after a slight rise, the downward correction continues

The US 500 index has entered a short-term downtrend. The US 500 forecast for today is negative.

US 500 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: US services PMI for July came in at 55.7
• Market impact: a higher-than-expected PMI reading reflects strong demand and activity in the services sector, which typically supports stock market growth

US 500 fundamental analysis

The services PMI in the US rose to 55.7 in July 2025, exceeding both the forecast of 55.2 and the previous figure of 52.9. This indicates that the services sector continues to expand at an accelerating pace, which is a positive signal for the US economy. Stronger-than-expected PMI growth reflects healthy demand and robust activity in the services sector, which strengthens business confidence and corporate profit outlook. This typically supports the stock market, including the broad US 500 index.

Positive effects are expected for sectors tied to services, such as finance, healthcare, consumer services, information technology, and communications, as they directly benefit from rising activity in services. However, Q3 results will play a decisive role, especially given the current weakness in the labour market.

US 500 technical analysis

After hitting an all-time high, the US 500 began a correction. A downtrend is now in place, although it is unlikely to persist for long. The support level lies at 6,205.0, while resistance stands at 6,410.0. The most probable scenario points to a continued decline towards the 6,075.0 level.

The following scenarios are considered for the US 500 price forecast:

• Pessimistic US 500 scenario: a breakout below the 6,205.0 support level could send the index down to 6,075.0
• Optimistic US 500 scenario: a breakout above the 6,410.0 resistance level could drive the index to 6,525.0

Summary

The PMI release serves as a positive signal for the US stock market and particularly supports the services sector, boosting the US 500 index in the short to medium term. However, investor optimism remains capped due to labour market weakness and upcoming inflation data, which may rise as a result of newly imposed tariffs. From a technical perspective, the US 500 index is likely to continue its decline towards the 6,075.0 level.