DE 40 forecast: the index corrects after resuming the uptrend

The DE 40 stock index has rebounded from the lower boundary of the medium-term sideways channel and has entered a new correction phase. The DE 40 forecast for today is positive.

DE 40 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: Germany's ZEW Economic Sentiment Index came in at 38.5
• Market impact: the data creates an ambiguous background for the German stock market

DE 40 fundamental analysis

Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index reached 38.5 points in November, below both the forecast of 41.0 and the previous value of 39.3. This indicates that analysts and major institutional investors remain optimistic overall, as the index is still well above zero, meaning that the majority of market participants expect an improvement in the economic situation over the coming months. However, the decline from the previous month and weaker-than-expected figures suggest that optimism has faded slightly.

For the DE 40 index, the result sends a mixed signal. On the one hand, the indicator remains in positive territory, implying that professional investors do not anticipate an imminent recession or a sharp economic downturn. This supports the baseline scenario of moderate recovery: companies can plan investments, exporters can expect a gradual rebound in external demand, and the domestic market may see cautious consumption growth. For export-oriented and industrial stocks, this environment is neutral to mildly supportive — investors gain reassurance that a deep economic slump is not the baseline scenario at present.

DE 40 technical analysis

For the DE 40 index, the key resistance level is located near 24,475.0, while a new support level has formed at 23,675.0. The prevailing trend is upward, and its duration remains uncertain. The next upside target is 23,270.0.

The DE 40 price forecast considers the following scenarios:

• Pessimistic DE 40 scenario: a breakout below the 23,675.0 support level could push the index to 23,270.0
• Optimistic DE 40 scenario: a breakout above the 24,475.0 resistance level could drive the index to 24,980.0

Summary

For the DE 40 index, the effect of the latest data is moderately negative, but not critical. Since the index depends heavily on expectations regarding German and global industrial activity, the weaker-than-forecast ZEW reading introduces a short-term risk of correction or softer sentiment. Investors may take partial profits on more volatile stocks and reallocate capital into companies with stronger balance sheets and stable dividends. During the day, the market may see heightened volatility or a temporary pullback immediately after the data release. The next upside target for the DE 40 index could be 24,980.0.

Open Account