Falling US employment strengthens the bearish outlook for USDJPY

The USDJPY rate remains under pressure as a combination of weak US data and expectations of BoJ tightening supports the yen. The current quote is 155.35. Find out more in our analysis for 4 December 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• The Japanese yen is hovering near a two-week high
• The ADP Research report showed a decline of 32 thousand jobs in the US private sector
• Weak US labour market data increased expectations of a Fed rate cut at the December meeting
• USDJPY forecast for 4 December 2025: 153.85

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate is slightly strengthening after rebounding from the 154.90 support level. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen remains near its strongest level in two weeks as the market increases bets that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates this month.

Additional support for the yen came from a weakening US dollar. Soft US labour market data boosted expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut the benchmark interest rate at the December meeting. The ADP Research report released on Wednesday showed the largest decline in private sector employment since March 2023 – minus 32 thousand jobs, while analysts had expected an increase of 10 thousand.

The statistics strengthen the case for further easing by the Federal Reserve. Labour demand in the US remains weak, consumer spending is beginning to weaken, and inflation risks are diminishing. Against this backdrop, the USDJPY forecast for today remains negative.

USDJPY technical analysis

The USDJPY pair is undergoing a correction, forming a Triangle pattern. Sellers continue to keep the price below the EMA-65, maintaining an overall bearish tone.

The USDJPY forecast suggests a short-term bullish correction towards 155.55. This area acts as key resistance within the Triangle. After testing the 155.55 level, the pair could resume its downward movement towards 153.85. The Stochastic Oscillator confirms the likelihood of a bearish scenario: its signal lines have turned upwards from oversold territory and are approaching the descending resistance line.

A consolidation below 154.65 will serve as key confirmation of continued downward momentum and signal a breakout below the Triangle’s lower boundary.

Summary

Amid weak US labour market data and expectations of Fed policy easing, the USDJPY rate remains under pressure. Technical analysis of USDJPY indicates a high probability of a bearish impulse towards 153.85 if the price consolidates below 154.65.

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