USDJPY continues its corrective movement

The USDJPY rate declines within a corrective structure. Discover more in our analysis for 17 October 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: the market is focused on US Treasury yields and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook amid Washington’s ongoing budget deadlock
• Current trend: correcting downwards
• USDJPY forecast for 17 October 2025: 149.00

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY pair remains influenced by broad volatility driven by the shutdown uncertainty in the US and the continued rise in Treasury yields. Despite political pressure on the dollar, the yen has failed to show sustainable strength, with the Bank of Japan maintaining its ultra-loose policy, limiting itself to verbal interventions. The market is awaiting new signals from the Federal Reserve regarding the December meeting, where the possibility of extending the high-rate period is under discussion.

USDJPY technical analysis

On the H4 chart, the USDJPY pair has formed a consolidation range around 151.00 below the Alligator indicator lines and has broken downwards. At present, the corrective decline has reached the 149.40 area. In the short term, an upward movement towards 151.00 (testing from below) is expected. However, as long as the price remains below the indicator, the correction is likely to end with another decline to 149.00. After the corrective wave is complete, growth is expected to resume first towards 151.60, followed by an impulse to 154.10. The local target is 154.10, and this growth structure is viewed as the beginning of a new upward cycle.

Today’s USDJPY forecast suggests the pair could continue to decline towards the 149.00 support level if bears maintain control. Conversely, an upward move is possible if bulls push the price above 151.60 and gain a foothold there.

Summary

As long as the price remains under pressure from the corrective wave, attention should be focused on the potential formation of a reversal pattern in the 149.00–149.40 zone. A breakout above 151.60 would confirm the market’s readiness to resume growth and open the path towards 154.10.

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