USDJPY drops below 151.00

The USDJPY rate is declining, moving below 151.00 amid growing political uncertainty in Japan. Discover more in our analysis for 16 October 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: machinery orders in Japan fell by 0.9% in August
• Current trend: correcting downwards
• USDJPY forecast for 16 October 2025: 150.00 or 152.00

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY pair continues to decline for the third consecutive session as the prospects of Liberal Democratic Party leader Sanae Takaichi becoming Japan’s next prime minister remain uncertain following the coalition breakup with the Komeito party.

The ruling party has proposed to hold a leadership vote on 21 October, although opposition parties have yet to agree on the date. Traders who had previously taken short positions on the yen, expecting that Takaichi would pursue aggressive fiscal spending and loose monetary policy, have since adjusted their positions amid growing political uncertainty.

USDJPY technical analysis

The USDJPY pair continues to move lower within the current downward correction. The Alligator indicator has turned downwards, confirming the prevailing bearish momentum. The local support level lies at 150.00.

Today’s USDJPY forecast suggests that the pair may continue to decline towards the 150.00 support level if bears maintain control. Conversely, upward movement could be expected if bulls push the price back above 151.00 and hold it there.

Summary

The USDJPY rate dipped below 151.00 amid political uncertainty in Japan. Market participants are waiting to see who will become the country’s next prime minister.

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