Weak Japanese data supports USDJPY growth

The USDJPY rate continues a steady upward movement, supported by weak economic data from Japan and uncertainty surrounding the BoJ’s policy direction. The rate currently stands at 152.96. Find out more in our analysis for 9 October 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Weak statistics have reduced expectations for further BoJ tightening
• Real wages in Japan fell by 1.4% year-on-year in August, extending an eight-month decline
• USDJPY forecast for 9 October 2025: 154.15

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate is rising for the sixth consecutive session, reflecting persistent pressure on the Japanese yen. Weak data has lowered expectations for further monetary tightening by the Bank of Japan, with investor attention now shifting to Friday’s producer inflation data, which may provide new policy signals.

Meanwhile, real wages in Japan fell by 1.4% year-on-year in August, extending an eight-month streak of declines as inflation continues to outpace income growth. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda noted that rate hikes are possible if current economic and price trends persist, but warned of the risks of slower growth momentum.

USDJPY technical analysis

The USDJPY rate continues to move within an ascending channel and has consolidated above the upper boundary of a Triangle pattern. Prices are hovering above the Moving Average, confirming ongoing buying pressure and opening the door for further growth.

The USDJPY forecast points to the development of a bullish scenario, targeting 154.15. An additional signal comes from the Stochastic Oscillator, which has turned upwards from oversold territory, forming an upside signal that reinforces the likelihood of a short-term bullish impulse.

Summary

The USDJPY rate continues to show bullish sentiment amid weak economic data from Japan and the BoJ’s cautious stance, further pressuring the yen. The USDJPY technical analysis confirms upward momentum, with a short-term target near 154.15.

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