USDJPY: BoJ minutes signal readiness for policy tightening

The USDJPY rate is correcting, but market attention is shifting to Japanese data and BoJ signals of possible tightening. The rate currently stands at 148.91. Find out more in our analysis for 29 September 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• The US consumer confidence index fell to 55.1, the lowest since May
• Japan is set to release the Tankan survey, confidence index, industrial production, and retail sales data
• BoJ meeting minutes signalled readiness to raise rates if the economy and inflation grow
• USDJPY forecast for 29 September 2025: 150.35

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate is declining for the second consecutive session, approaching the 148.55 support level. The dollar is under pressure due to the risk of a possible US government shutdown. An additional factor was the core PCE data, which reinforced expectations of two Federal Reserve rate cuts at upcoming meetings. The Fed traditionally pays close attention to this index when assessing inflation risks. The US consumer confidence index fell to 55.1 in September from 58.2 in August, reaching the lowest level since May, which also increased selling pressure on the USDJPY pair.

In Japan, investors’ attention is focused on the release of key reports: Tankan survey, consumer confidence index, industrial production, retail sales, and the Bank of Japan’s opinion survey. The minutes of the BoJ’s July meeting showed readiness for further rate hikes if the economy and inflation continue to rise. In September, the regulator kept rates unchanged, but two board members pointed to the prospect of policy tightening.

USDJPY technical analysis

The USDJPY rate remains within an ascending channel despite the bearish correction. On the chart, the pair declined from 150.00 and reached the 148.85 support level. Current consolidation near support indicates a potential upward rebound.

Today’s USDJPY forecast suggests a bullish scenario with growth towards 150.35. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and poised to turn upwards, confirming the likelihood of USDJPY recovery in the near term.

A consolidation above 149.40 will signal the continuation of the uptrend, indicating a breakout of the pair beyond the descending correction channel.

Summary

The USDJPY forecast suggests a possible resumption of growth towards 150.35 if the 148.85 support level holds, despite current pressure from weak US data and moderately hawkish policy signals from Japan.

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