USDJPY: dollar strengthens, but gains capped by resistance

The USDJPY rate remains in consolidation within a sideways range, with the market focused on upcoming Fed remarks and key US inflation data. The rate currently stands at 147.81. Find out more in our analysis for 23 September 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Bank of Japan kept its key rate at 5% for the fifth consecutive meeting
• The regulator highlighted a moderate economic recovery in Japan
• The BoJ pointed to risks associated with global trade policy
• USDJPY forecast for 23 September 2025: 149.60

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate is strengthening while remaining within a sideways range as sellers defend the key resistance level at 148.15. Market focus is on upcoming Fed commentary ahead of fresh US inflation data.

Fed Governor Stephen Miran noted that the current federal funds rate is too high and should be reduced to protect the US labour market. Scheduled for Tuesday are speeches by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Vice Chair Michelle Bowman. On Friday, market participants will focus on the August report on US personal income and outlays, which includes the core PCE price index, the Fed’s key inflation gauge.

On the Japanese side, last Friday, the Bank of Japan left its policy rate unchanged at 0.5% for the fifth consecutive time. Policymakers acknowledged a moderate economic recovery but warned of persistent vulnerabilities and external risks tied to global trade policy.

USDJPY technical analysis

The USDJPY rate is moving within an ascending channel. At present, quotes have bounced from the nearest support level and are holding above the Moving Averages, indicating sustained buyer interest.

Today’s USDJPY forecast suggests a bullish scenario, with quotes likely to rise towards the 149.60 resistance level. The Stochastic Oscillator has turned upwards from oversold territory, confirming the recovery of bullish momentum and creating conditions for further upward movement.

A price consolidation above 148.35 will act as a confirming signal for the bullish scenario.

Summary

The USDJPY rate remains in a consolidation phase, with direction hinging on Fed signals and upcoming key US inflation data. Technical analysis of USDJPY indicates prevailing bullish momentum with a growth target at 149.60.

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