USDJPY under pressure: Japan’s politics and Fed expectations shape the course

The USDJPY pair continues to decline, with the yen benefitting from US dollar weakness. Discover more in our analysis for 9 September 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• The USDJPY pair moves lower amid weakness in the US dollar
• The market is watching Fed rate prospects and domestic political changes
• USDJPY forecast for 9 September 2025: 146.82

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate fell to 147.11 on Tuesday, extending the decline from the previous session. The weakness of the US dollar is linked to growing expectations of deeper Fed rate cuts.

Markets are preparing for the release of revised US employment data for the period from April 2024 to March 2025. The figures are expected to be adjusted downwards, underlining the Fed’s lag in fulfilling its mandate of maximising employment.

Currently, traders are pricing in an 89% probability of a 25-basis-point cut next week. At the same time, some participants are still betting on a larger 50-basis-point move.

Domestically, investors are assessing the implications of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s resignation. The decision followed widening divisions within the ruling party and pressure after the defeat in last year’s national elections.

These developments coincided with Japan’s setbacks in negotiations over a trade deal with the US. All this adds uncertainty to the outlook for the country’s economic and political stability.

The USDJPY forecast is negative.

USDJPY technical analysis

The USDJPY H4 chart shows a local decline towards 147.11. After an attempt to rise to the resistance zone of 148.80–149.00, the market turned downwards. The support level is located near 146.82, while intermediate resistance is marked at 147.87.

Bollinger Bands are expanding downwards, reflecting rising volatility and increased selling pressure. Indicators suggest a bearish impulse: candlesticks have consolidated below the middle Bollinger Band, which increases the likelihood of testing the range’s lower boundary.

Overall, the technical picture shows the balance shifting in favour of the bears. A breakout below 146.82 would strengthen the downward move with targets around 146.50–146.30. To restore a bullish impulse, the pair needs to consolidate above 147.87, which would return quotes to the 148.50–149.00 zone.

Summary

The USDJPY pair maintains its downward trajectory amid worsening conditions for the US dollar. The USDJPY forecast for today, 9 September 2025, does not rule out a slide towards 146.82.

Bearish

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