USDJPY climbs above 148.00, Fed and Bank of Japan rate decisions in focus

The USDJPY pair is moderately strengthening, rising above 148.00 ahead of this week’s key monetary policy decisions from the Bank of Japan and the US Federal Reserve. Find out more in our analysis for 28 July 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: this week, attention turns to interest rate decisions by the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve
• Current trend: upward momentum persists
• USDJPY forecast for 28 July 2025: 149.18 or 147.00

Fundamental analysis

The Japanese yen is weakening moderately following trade agreements with the US. This week, the market will focus on the monetary policy decisions from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged on Wednesday, although markets will be closely watching for signals on a possible rate cut in September.

The Bank of Japan will announce its policy decision on Thursday. Rates are also expected to remain unchanged amid ongoing concerns about the economic impact of US trade tariffs. However, the central bank is likely to revise its inflation forecast upwards in its quarterly outlook, reflecting persistent price pressures.

USDJPY technical analysis

On the H4 chart, the USDJPY pair is steadily climbing, having reached the 148.00 resistance level. The Alligator indicator continues to move upwards, confirming the current bullish trend. Further growth towards the local daily high of 149.18 is possible.

Today’s USDJPY forecast suggests the pair could extend gains if bulls hold above 148.00. A downside scenario becomes more probable if bears regain control and push the price below 147.00, potentially triggering a correction towards the 146.00 support level.

Summary

The USDJPY pair is strengthening, rising above the 148.00 level. This week’s upcoming rate decisions from the Fed and the Bank of Japan will determine the pair’s further direction.