USDJPY: Bank of Japan’s hawkish signals boost interest in the yen

The USDJPY pair is consolidating after a decline, with pressure on the currency pair persisting. The price currently stands at 145.02. Find out more in our analysis for 25 June 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Bank of Japan’s summary of opinions confirmed a cautious stance
• Board member Naoki Tamura delivered a hawkish statement
• Japan’s coincident economic index rose to 116.0
• USDJPY forecast for 25 June 2025: 143.15

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate is moderately correcting after yesterday’s sharp decline and has consolidated near the key support level at 144.85. The Bank of Japan’s latest summary of opinions exerted some pressure on the yen, as it confirmed the regulator’s cautious approach to further monetary policy changes.

However, board member Naoki Tamura sent a more hawkish signal, suggesting that the BoJ should consider another rate hike without delay, as inflation may reach the 2% target sooner than previously expected.

Additional support for the yen came from Japan’s latest economic data. The coincident index, which tracks industrial production, employment, and retail sales trends, rose to 116.0 in April 2025, exceeding the preliminary estimate of 111.5.

USDJPY technical analysis

The USDJPY rate continues its decline after breaking below the medium-term ascending channel. The price is consolidating within a Triangle pattern, clinging to the 144.85 support level. Today’s USDJPY forecast suggests the potential for a downward impulse, with the price breaking below the pattern’s lower boundary, targeting 143.15.

Stochastic Oscillator analysis points to local overbought conditions with a downward reversal, reinforcing the case for further decline. The test of the 65-period Moving Average adds to the pressure on the pair.

A breakout below 144.55 would validate the bearish scenario and increase the likelihood of a move towards the next target at 143.15.

Summary

The USDJPY rate dropped sharply towards the 145.00 area as tensions in the Middle East eased. Investors are waiting for the Bank of Japan to decide on another key rate hike.