CAD under pressure – USDCAD gears up for a new surge

The Canadian dollar remains under pressure, with USDCAD trading near 1.4030. Discover more in our analysis for 17 November 2025.

USDCAD forecast: key trading points

• The Bank of Canada’s rate cut has partially weakened the CAD
• The Bank of Canada expects inflation to fall to 2%
• USDCAD forecast for 17 November 2025: 1.4055 and 1.3990

Fundamental analysis

Today’s USDCAD outlook remains unfavourable for the Canadian dollar, as the pair continues to rise, trading around 1.4030.

On 29 October 2025, the Bank of Canada lowered its key interest rate to 2.25%, partially weakening the CAD. The USDCAD forecast takes into account that any further moves by the regulator will be cautious, as the Bank of Canada’s Governor stated there are no plans to adjust rates in the near term.

However, market participants take a different view, with most expecting the next policy steps by the Bank of Canada to be rate hikes by 2027. This outlook limits the CAD’s downside caused by the current loose policy stance.

According to the Bank of Canada’s projections, inflation is expected to decline, with consumer prices approaching 2% by early 2026. Nevertheless, risks remain due to US tariffs and the reorganisation of global supply chains, which could increase import and export costs.

If investors start doubting further monetary easing by the Bank of Canada, the CAD may gain additional support, pushing the USDCAD rate lower.

USDCAD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, the USDCAD pair has formed a Shooting Star reversal pattern near the upper Bollinger Band. The price may now develop a downward wave following this signal. Since the pair remains within an ascending channel, a decline towards the nearest support level at 1.3990 is possible. If the price bounces from this support, the uptrend may resume.

Meanwhile, the forecast for 17 November 2025 also considers an alternative scenario, where the price rises towards 1.4055 before a move lower.

Summary

The Canadian dollar remains under pressure despite the Bank of Canada’s positive inflation outlook. The USDCAD technical analysis suggests a potential move down towards the 1.3990 support level.

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