Slowdown in US business activity limits USDCAD growth

The USDCAD pair is trading within a correction, reflecting the market’s reaction to the US government shutdown and a decline in business activity indicators. The rate currently stands at 1.3949. Discover more in our analysis for 6 October 2025.

USDCAD forecast: key trading points

• Investors assess the consequences of the ongoing US government shutdown
• The market did not receive the traditional September employment report
• The US ISM services PMI dropped to 50 in September from 52 previously
• USDCAD forecast for 6 October 2025: 1.3995

Fundamental analysis

The USDCAD rate rebounded from the 1.3945 support level and is attempting to grow today, but the pair remains under pressure. Investors are assessing the economic consequences of the ongoing US government shutdown. The suspension of federal operations has led to a temporary halt in the publication of critical macroeconomic data that the Federal Reserve relies on to evaluate the state of the economy. In particular, last Friday, the market did not receive the traditional Nonfarm Payrolls report for September.

However, several independent organisations continue to release statistics. According to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), the US services PMI declined to 50 points in September from 52 in August. Traders had expected a more modest drop to 51.7. For reference, values above 50 indicate expansion in the sector, while readings below 50 signal contraction.

USDCAD technical analysis

The USDCAD pair continues to move within an ascending channel, currently undergoing a correction while retaining potential for forming a Double Bottom reversal pattern. The current pullback pushed the price to the strong 1.3945 support level, where the asset again found buying interest.

The USDCAD forecast for today suggests a rebound from the 1.3945 level towards the channel resistance near 1.3995.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and beginning to turn upwards, confirming the probability of a new bullish impulse. A breakout above the upper boundary of the descending correction channel and consolidation above 1.3960 would strengthen bullish momentum.

Summary

The fundamental backdrop reflects ongoing uncertainty: upside potential is limited by the absence of key economic data due to the US government shutdown and signs of a slowdown in the US economy. However, the USDCAD technical analysis indicates that bullish potential remains, with a likely rebound from 1.3945 and movement towards 1.3995.

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