Bostic decides the fate of USDCAD: decline or reversal

Bostic’s speech could trigger a decline in USDCAD quotes towards 1.3610. Discover more in our analysis for 30 June 2025.

USDCAD forecast: key trading points

• The Canadian government cancelled the digital tax
• Speech by Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) member Raphael W. Bostic
• USDCAD forecast for 30 June 2025: 1.3610

Fundamental analysis

Today’s forecast for USDCAD is optimistic for CAD. As part of the resumption of broad trade negotiations between the US and Canada, the Canadian government cancelled the digital tax, thus taking a step towards the US. Against this backdrop, the Canadian dollar continues to strengthen.

The USDCAD forecast also considers that Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) member Bostic will give a speech, which may influence the USDCAD rate.

What to expect from Bostic’s speech:

• Bostic remains cautious in his outlook on interest rate changes
• Inflation may remain at 3%
• Easing of trade tariffs is possible only after assessing their impact on the US economy

USDCAD technical analysis

On the H4 chart for EURUSD, the price formed a reversal pattern – Shooting Star – near the upper Bollinger Bands line. At this stage, it is forming a downward wave as part of working out the received signal. Considering that the quotes remain within the boundaries of the descending channel, a decline towards the nearest support at 1.3610 can be expected. If support is broken, it will open prospects for the development of a downtrend.

However, the forecast for 30 June 2025 also includes a scenario of a price correction towards 1.3695, with a subsequent strengthening of the downward dynamics after testing the resistance.

Summary

The anticipation of the FOMC representative’s speech, combined with the technical analysis of USDCAD, suggests a decline in the rate towards the 1.3610 level.