GBPUSD consolidates above 1.3300

The GBPUSD rate climbed above 1.3300 despite mixed data on UK wage growth. Find out more in our analysis for 15 October 2025.

GBPUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: the UK unemployment rate stood at 4.8% in August
• Current trend: upward momentum is observed
• GBPUSD forecast for 15 October 2025: 1.3500 and 1.3250

Fundamental analysis

The latest wage growth data reinforced expectations that the Bank of England may continue to cut interest rates gradually. The UK employment report for June–August 2025 showed that wage growth slowed to 4.7%, down from 4.8% in the previous three months, marking the weakest pace since March–May 2022.

Other indicators point to stabilisation in the labour market: the unemployment rate slightly increased to 4.8%, exceeding the forecast of 4.7%, while employment fell by 10 thousand in September, offsetting the same increase seen in the previous month. The British pound is supported by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut.

GBPUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, the GBPUSD pair shows strong upward momentum, holding firmly above 1.3300. The Alligator indicator is directed upwards and steadily growing, so the upward movement may continue.

The short-term GBPUSD forecast suggests that the pair has the potential for further growth towards 1.3500 and higher if bulls keep the price above the 1.3250 support level. A downside scenario would require sellers to break and consolidate below 1.3250, opening the path towards the next support level at 1.3100.

Summary

The GBPUSD pair has turned upwards and firmly consolidated above 1.3300. The market anticipates a potential Federal Reserve rate cut in October.

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