GBPUSD declines amid US economic uncertainty

The GBPUSD pair remains under pressure amid a stronger US dollar and ongoing uncertainty caused by the prolonged US budget crisis, currently trading at 1.3389. Discover more in our analysis for 8 October 2025.

GBPUSD forecast: key trading points

• The US dollar strengthens amid rising demand for safe-haven assets
• The US budget crisis worsens economic forecasts and delays key data releases
• The likelihood of a Bank of England rate cut in November is estimated at 10%
• GBPUSD forecast for 8 October 2025: 1.3225

Fundamental analysis

The GBPUSD rate is declining for the second consecutive session, having broken below the key 1.3420 level, reflecting stronger US dollar positions. Support for the dollar comes from growing demand for safe-haven assets amid the prolonged budget crisis, as the US government remains shut down for the second week with no signs of an imminent compromise. This uncertainty worsens economic forecasts, delays key data releases, and increases pressure on policymakers to find a solution.

Additional market attention is focused on upcoming comments from Bank of England officials. Chief Economist Huw Pill is expected to speak today, followed by Catherine Mann, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee, on Thursday. At the September meeting, both voted with the majority to keep rates unchanged. Meanwhile, traders currently price in only a 10% probability of a rate cut by the BoE in November.

GBPUSD technical analysis

The GBPUSD pair is moving within a descending channel. Quotes have rebounded from the Moving Averages, which strengthens downward pressure from sellers. Against this backdrop, there remains potential for further decline and a bearish outlook for the GBPUSD pair today, with a downside target at 1.3225.

The Stochastic Oscillator confirms the pair’s weakness, showing a downward movement after the signal lines crossed and rebounded from the trend resistance line. This reinforces the likelihood of a bearish scenario developing in the short term.

Summary

The current GBPUSD dynamics indicate persistent pressure from the US dollar, with the market focused on the risks of the US budget crisis and upcoming Bank of England comments. The GBPUSD technical analysis suggests continued bearish momentum, with potential downside towards 1.3225 in the short term.

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