GBPUSD: the pair surged above 1.3500

The GBPUSD rate climbed above 1.3500, as markets anticipate the signing of a free trade agreement between the UK and India. Full details in our analysis for 23 July 2025.

GBPUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: the pound strengthens amid UK–India trade agreement
• Current trend: bullish momentum observed
• GBPUSD forecast for 23 July 2025: 1.3575 and 1.3500

Fundamental analysis

GBPUSD has held above 1.3500, supported by broad US dollar weakness, as market sentiment remains cautious due to growing uncertainty around US tariffs and concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence.

India and the United Kingdom plan to sign a free trade agreement on Thursday during Prime Minister Modi's visit to the UK. Under this agreement, India will reduce tariffs on British whisky, cars and selected food products, while the UK will grant duty-free access to Indian textiles and electric vehicles.

GBPUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, GBPUSD shows a clear upward momentum, having bounced from daily support at 1.3370. The Alligator indicator is pointing upwards and rising steadily, suggesting the uptrend may continue.

The short-term forecast for GBPUSD indicates that if bulls can maintain the price above the support at 1.3500, the pair may target resistance at 1.3575 and beyond. A downward correction could start if bears manage to push the price below 1.3500, with further support seen at 1.3460.

Summary

GBPUSD confidently rose above 1.3500. The market welcomes the progress toward a free trade agreement between the UK and India.