EURUSD weekly forecast: moderate growth and cautious expectations

In the new week, the EURUSD pair maintains a neutral-to-positive sentiment, staying above the key support level at 1.1669. The currency market has digested the outcome of the ECB meeting on 24 July: the regulator kept rates unchanged and signalled readiness to maintain a tight stance until inflation stabilises. This boosted interest in the euro, especially amid expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts in September and December. Additional support for the single currency came from news about the nearing trade agreement between the US and the EU – the deal may include a 15% tariff on most European imports. Reduced trade risks positively affect demand for developed-market currencies.

At the same time, the US dollar’s performance remains subdued: the DXY index dropped to 97.5, reflecting Donald Trump’s softened rhetoric towards Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and cautious forecasts on US monetary policy. This forms a fundamental basis for continued euro strengthening.

The key factors for the coming days include US macroeconomic releases – primarily GDP and consumer spending data. These may adjust expectations for Fed actions and set a short-term direction for the EURUSD pair.

EURUSD forecast for this week: quick overview

• Market focus:

Progress in US-EU trade negotiations, including a possible 15% tariff agreement on European goods, eased tensions and supported the euro. Donald Trump softened his rhetoric towards Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, stating he does not intend to dismiss him. At the same time, the market is pricing in a 43-basis-point rate cut from the Fed by the end of the year. All of this weakened the US dollar and supported interest in developed-market currencies, including the euro.

• Current trend:

The EURUSD pair continues a moderately upward movement, staying within the medium-term channel. Support for the trend came from hawkish signals during the ECB meeting on 24 July, where the regulator kept rates unchanged and emphasised its commitment to a tight policy until inflation stabilises.

Technically, the pair holds above 1.1669, but MACD and Stochastic indicators point to a possible short-term correction.

• EURUSD forecast for 28 July-1 August 2025:

As long as the EURUSD pair holds above 1.1669, there is potential for growth to 1.1835 and then to 1.1900. A breakout above this area could trigger bullish momentum towards 1.2000. The nearest support level is at 1.1549. A breakout below it would increase the risk of a correction towards 1.1440.

Focus remains on US GDP data, fresh inflation figures, and statements from Fed officials.

EURUSD fundamental analysis

The EURUSD pair had a strong week and rose earlier, and the outlook for the new week appears favourable. Pressure on the US dollar came from positive signals in US-EU trade negotiations and Donald Trump’s softened rhetoric towards Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

News about the nearing US-EU trade agreement, which would impose a 15% tariff on most European goods, increased demand for the euro. The agreement is expected to follow the model of the recent US-Japan deal. According to market participants, it may reduce the risk of trade conflict, which supports interest in developed-market currencies, including the euro.

Additional support for the euro came from the ECB meeting held on 24 July. As expected, the bank kept key rates unchanged but signalled a more decisive approach to tackling inflation. ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that inflation risks remain elevated and monetary policy will stay tight until price growth stabilises at the target level. The market interpreted this as a hawkish message, especially amid expectations of policy easing from the Fed.

Eurozone bond yields slightly increased, while US Treasury yields pulled back. Investors are pricing in about 43 basis points in Fed rate cuts by the end of 2025, with the highest probability of changes in September and December.

This divergence in expectations between the Federal Reserve and ECB provides fundamental support for further euro strengthening.

EURUSD technical analysis

In late July 2025, the EURUSD pair remains in a steady uptrend that began back in March 2025. Since then, the pair has broken above key technical levels at 1.1549 and 1.1669 and moved into a consolidation zone below resistance at 1.1836. In recent weeks, the pace has slowed, but the structure remains bullish, with the price trading in the upper third of the range and above the Bollinger midline.

Indicators suggest a potential pause in growth. Bollinger Bands are narrowing, which often precedes a breakout but does not indicate the direction. MACD remains in positive territory, while the histogram is shrinking, which may signal weakening upward momentum. The Stochastic oscillator is in the overbought zone (above 80), also pointing to a possible local pullback.

The nearest support level is at 1.1669, with the key support around 1.1549. As long as the pair holds above these levels, it could continue its movement towards 1.1836 and higher. A breakout above this area would open the path to new highs. If pressure on the USD persists due to dovish Fed rhetoric and progress in US trade negotiations with partners, the technical structure will support further growth. Otherwise, a short-term decline back to 1.1669 is possible.

EURUSD trading scenarios

The outlook for EURUSD this week is moderately positive, with a bias towards growth. Fundamentally, the euro is supported by the contrast in monetary policy between the Federal Reserve and the ECB. The US regulator remains cautious and open to cutting rates, while the ECB maintains a hawkish tone. Additional stimulus comes from progress in US-EU trade negotiations, which reduces demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset. Technically, the pair remains above key levels and within an ascending channel, although overbought signals suggest a possible correction.

• Buy scenario:

If the EURUSD pair holds above 1.1669 and shows signs of local stabilisation, such as sideways consolidation on the daily chart or restrained divergence on the Stochastic, a long position may be considered.

The target in this case is a retest of the 1.1836 resistance. A breakout and consolidation above this area would open the door for a move towards 1.1900-1.2000.

Stop-Loss is below 1.1549, as a return below this level would break the bullish trend structure and increase the risk of a decline.

• Sell (short) scenario:

If the EURUSD pair fails to break above 1.1836 and signs of impulse exhaustion appear – shrinking MACD histogram, a rebound from the upper Bollinger Band, or a downward Stochastic reversal – a corrective scenario may unfold. Dollar strength due to strong US macro data would act as an additional catalyst for a decline.

The target is 1.1669, followed by 1.1549. Below that, the downward phase could extend towards 1.1440.

Stop-Loss is above 1.1840 to limit risk in case of a false breakout.

Overall, the structure remains bullish, but with potential for a local correction. Attention is focused on US inflation data and Fed official speeches.

Summary

The euro finds support in the ECB meeting results and news of US-EU trade alignment. Softer rhetoric from Donald Trump and moderate Fed rate expectations also sustain interest in the euro.

The coming days may see a consolidation phase as the market awaits fresh US statistics and Fed commentary. A technical trigger for buying is 1.1685, with a breakout above this level likely to open the way to 1.1830 and higher.

If pressure on the euro intensifies and the EURUSD pair breaks below 1.1530, this would signal a correction towards 1.1440-1.1360. For now, a moderately bullish scenario remains valid.