EURUSD on the rise: the US turns Europe against itself

The EURUSD pair rose to 1.1765, with all eyes on the drama around Greenland. Find more details in our analysis for 21 January 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The EURUSD pair is rising, supported by market aversion to the US dollar
• US actions regarding Greenland undermine market confidence
• EURUSD forecast for 21 January 2026: 1.1765

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is consolidating near 1.1716 on Wednesday. Pressure on the US dollar intensified amid escalating tensions between the US and Europe due to rhetoric from US President Donald Trump regarding Greenland. This development undermined confidence in US assets.

Over the weekend, Trump threatened eight European countries with new tariffs if no agreement on Greenland is reached. In response, the EU signalled that it may impose tariffs on 93 billion USD of US imports, while France called for the activation of the EU Anti-Coercion Instrument.

Additional concern emerged from fears that Europe could use its significant investments in US equities and bonds as part of the trade confrontation. A Danish pension fund already announced plans to exit US Treasury bonds.

Investors are also awaiting a decision from the US Supreme Court regarding the legality of key elements of the Trump administration’s trade policy.

The EURUSD forecast is positive.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair formed a local bottom in the 1.1575–1.1580 zone after a prolonged decline, followed by a transition to a sharp impulsive rise. Buyers quickly returned the price above the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, indicating a shift in short-term momentum towards growth. However, from a structural perspective, the move still appears as a correction within a broader downtrend.

Currently, the EURUSD pair is consolidating around 1.1700–1.1720 after a strong rally. Volatility has declined, and candlestick patterns indicate a pause after the surge. The nearest resistance level lies in the 1.1765–1.1770 zone, followed by the psychological level of 1.1800, while the support level is located in the 1.1700–1.1690 area. A breakout below this zone will increase the risk of a pullback towards 1.1635–1.1615.

Indicators confirm the stabilisation phase. MACD remains in positive territory and continues to rise, reflecting continued bullish momentum. The Stochastic Oscillator turned downwards from overbought territory, signalling a likely short-term correction without signs of a trend reversal. Overall, the market remains in a digestion phase after the rally, while retaining the potential for further upward movement if the support level holds.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: moderately bullish
• Key resistance levels: 1.1765 and 1.1800
• Key support levels: 1.1700 and 1.1580

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation above 1.1765 will confirm persistent upward momentum after the consolidation phase and indicate the market is poised for further growth. The move is supported by US dollar weakness amid the trade conflict between the US and the EU and declining confidence in US assets.

Risk-to-reward ratio is above 1:2.

• Buy Stop: 1.1765
• Take Profit: 1.1850
• Stop Loss: 1.1690

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A move and consolidation below 1.1700 will signal weakening bullish momentum and indicate a corrective pullback after the sharp rise.

• Sell Stop: 1.1690
• Take Profit: 1.1615
• Stop Loss: 1.1775

Risk factors

Despite the current pressure on the US dollar, strong US macroeconomic data or a softening of trade rhetoric from the Trump administration may restore investor interest in the US currency and limit the upside potential of the EURUSD pair.

Summary

The EURUSD pair may continue to rise given the external environment. The EURUSD forecast for today, 21 January 2026, does not rule out an advance towards 1.1765.

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