EURUSD: the pair declined to 1.1700 after the ECB decision

The EURUSD rate is consolidating near the 1.1700 support level following the ECB interest rate decision. Details — in our analysis for 19 December 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Market focus: the ECB left interest rates unchanged
• Current trend: range-bound trading is observed
• EURUSD forecast for 19 December 2025: 1.1650 or 1.1800

Fundamental analysis

EURUSD quotes declined toward the 1.1700 level after the ECB decided to keep its key interest rates unchanged. The decision fully matched investor expectations and did not generate a clear directional impulse for the currency pair.

The main refinancing rate remains at 2.15%, while the deposit rate stays at 2.0%. The regulator reaffirmed its commitment to a data-dependent approach, making decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis.

Speaking at the press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that neither a rate hike nor a rate cut is currently being considered. She emphasized that the central bank does not follow a pre-set plan for changing borrowing costs and, amid high uncertainty, refrains from making long-term policy projections.

EURUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, EURUSD quotes are consolidating near the 1.1700 level. The Alligator indicator is in a neutral position, indicating the absence of a clearly defined trend. If support at 1.1700 fails to hold, a downward correction may develop.

Within the short-term EURUSD price forecast, if bulls show initiative, a move toward the 1.1800 level is вполне possible in the near term. If bears seize control and push prices below 1.1700, a decline toward the 1.1650 support level may follow.

Summary

The EURUSD price is consolidating near the 1.1700 support level after the ECB meeting. The regulator left interest rates unchanged and emphasized that no changes in monetary policy are expected in the near term.

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