EURUSD maintains upward momentum amid weak US labour market signals

The EURUSD pair started the day with gains, strengthening its bullish momentum after breaking out of the Triangle pattern. The rate currently stands at 1.1658. Find more details in our analysis for 5 December 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• The likelihood of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in December remains at 87%
• The number of Americans filing initial jobless claims fell to 191 thousand last week
• EURUSD forecast for 5 December 2025: 1.1785

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is rising after yesterday’s correction. On the daily timeframe, the pair has likely consolidated above the upper boundary of the Triangle pattern, strengthening the technical signal in favour of further upside movement. Investors continue to assess labour market conditions and the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in December, with the probability of a 25-basis-point cut remaining at 87%.

Initial jobless claims fell by 27 thousand to 191 thousand last week, down from 218 thousand previously. While the forecast suggested an increase to 220 thousand, actual data painted a more optimistic picture for the labour market.

However, data from Challenger Gray & Christmas showed that US companies announced 71 thousand job cuts in November, the highest November figure since 2022, indicating growing pressure on the labour market. Against this backdrop, today’s EURUSD forecast remains bullish.

EURUSD technical analysis

The EURUSD rate is rising within an ascending channel. Buyers continue to hold the price above the EMA-65, indicating persistent bullish pressure.

The EURUSD forecast suggests continued growth towards 1.1785. The Stochastic Oscillator confirms the likelihood of an upward scenario, with the signal lines turning from overbought territory and approaching the support level.

A price consolidation above 1.1710 will be a key confirmation of continued bullish momentum and signal a breakout above the upper boundary of the ascending channel.

Summary

EURUSD technical analysis confirms a sustained bullish structure, while mixed US labour market data strengthens the pair’s potential to rise towards 1.1785.

Open Account

Editors’ picks

EURUSD 2026-2027 forecast: key market trends and future predictions

This article provides the EURUSD forecast for 2026 and 2027 and highlights the main factors determining the direction of the pair’s movements. We will apply technical analysis, take into account the opinions of leading experts, large banks, and financial institutions, and study AI-based forecasts. This comprehensive insight into EURUSD predictions should help investors and traders make informed decisions.

Gold (XAUUSD) forecast 2026 and beyond: expert insights, price predictions, and analysis

This article offers a Gold (XAUUSD) price forecast for 2026 and beyond, combining technical analysis, expert forecasts, and key macroeconomic factors. It explains the drivers behind gold’s recent surge, explores potential scenarios including a move toward 4,500 to 5,000 USD per ounce, and highlights why the metal remains a strong hedge during global uncertainty.