EURUSD poised for new highs

Rising unemployment in the US supports the strengthening of the euro, with the EURUSD pair moving towards 1.1700. Discover more in our analysis for 4 December 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• US initial jobless claims: previously at 216 thousand, projected at 219 thousand
• Markets expect a Fed rate cut
• EURUSD forecast for 4 December 2025: 1.1640 and 1.1700

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD forecast reflects that today the euro is forming a correction after regaining previously lost ground. The pair is trading near 1.1661.

US initial jobless claims measure the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time during the previous week. This indicator measures the labour market climate, with an increase in initial jobless claims indicating rising unemployment. The previous reading was 216 thousand, and the forecast for 4 December 2025 suggests the number may increase to 219 thousand. While the change is not critical, actual data deviating from the forecast, combined with other US fundamentals, may add to pressure on the USD.

The forecast for 4 December 2025 takes into account that markets remain focused on the anticipated monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve. These expectations have long been priced in, but as the meeting approaches, market tension grows. Against this backdrop, the euro continues to regain ground, and the EURUSD rate may soon reach the levels last seen in September 2025.

EURUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair formed a Shooting Star reversal pattern near the upper Bollinger Band. At this stage, the price may extend a downward wave following the signal. Since the pair remains within an ascending channel, it may head towards 1.1640. A rebound from this level would open the door to the continuation of the broader uptrend.

At the same time, the EURUSD forecast for today also considers an alternative scenario, where the price could rise towards 1.1700 without testing the support level.

Summary

The EURUSD outlook favours the euro. However, technical analysis suggests a corrective move towards 1.1640 before further upside continuation.

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