Expectations of a new Fed Chair support EURUSD growth

The EURUSD pair is rising amid pressure on the US dollar and growing expectations of a more dovish Federal Reserve policy, currently trading at 1.1600. Discover more in our analysis for 1 December 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• Traders are now pricing in an 87.6% probability of a Fed rate cut at the upcoming meeting
• The market expects three more Fed rate cuts next year
• Dovish expectations for the Fed increase the likelihood of further EURUSD growth
• EURUSD forecast for 1 December 2025: 1.1660

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD exchange rate is strengthening for the sixth consecutive trading session. However, sellers continue to successfully defend the key resistance level at 1.1605, which has remained unbroken for four sessions.

The US dollar remains under pressure. Traders are pricing in an 87.6% probability that the Federal Reserve will deliver a final 25-basis-point rate cut of the year at the upcoming meeting. The market also expects three additional cuts next year.

Investors are reacting to reports that White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett is being considered as the leading candidate to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair. Market participants believe such an appointment would align with President Donald Trump's preference for more accommodative monetary policy, increasing the likelihood of continued EURUSD upside.

EURUSD technical analysis

The EURUSD rate is rising slightly after breaking above the upper boundary of the corrective channel. Buyers keep prices above the EMA-65 line, confirming the dominance of bullish sentiment.

The EURUSD forecast for today suggests a minor bearish correction, after which renewed growth towards 1.1660 is expected. An additional signal in favour of further upside comes from the Stochastic Oscillator, with its signal lines turning down from overbought territory and approaching the support level.

A consolidation above 1.1615 will serve as a key indication of a fully resumed bullish impulse.

Summary

EURUSD technical analysis indicates sustained bullish momentum. Current expectations of a Fed rate cut and the potential appointment of a more dovish Fed chair increase pressure on the USD, supporting further upside potential in the pair towards 1.1660.

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