Falling inflation in Germany breaks EURUSD forecasts

The euro, attempting to regain lost ground, has slowed its upward momentum, with the EURUSD pair trading near 1.1580. Find out more in our analysis for 28 November 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• Germany’s Consumer Price Index (CPI): previously at 0.3%, projected at -0.2%
• Markets await the Fed’s interest rate decision
• EURUSD forecast for 28 November 2025: 1.1540

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD forecast takes into account that today the euro, after attempting to regain lost ground, is forming a correction, with the pair trading near 1.1580.

Germany’s Consumer Price Index reflects changes in the cost of goods and services for consumers, helping to assess purchasing trends and the degree of economic stagnation. A lower-than-expected reading will have a negative impact on the European currency.

The forecast for 28 November 2025 suggests the CPI may decline to -0.2%, down from the previous reading of 0.3%. If the actual figure turns out worse than expected, this could affect the EURUSD rate and trigger further price declines.

Markets are also awaiting the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates, which increases tension and fuels volatility in the EURUSD pair. Given lower trading activity in the US and the absence of new economic releases due to the holidays, the euro may receive a short-term trigger for growth, but weak economic indicators from several EU countries continue to restrain upside potential.

EURUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair has formed a Harami reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band. At this stage, the pair may continue its downward movement following this signal. Since the price is moving within a descending channel, it may head towards 1.1540. A breakout below this level will open the way for further downward movement.

At the same time, today’s EURUSD forecast also considers an alternative scenario where the price rises towards 1.1610 before edging lower.

Summary

Weak economic indicators from the eurozone may trigger a new decline in the euro. EURUSD technical analysis suggests a potential move down to the 1.1540 support level.

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