EURUSD holds above 1.1520 despite bearish pressure

The EURUSD pair continues to correct for the second consecutive session, with investors awaiting key macroeconomic data. The rate currently stands at 1.1520. Find out more in our analysis for 25 November 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• Expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have increased significantly
• The US dollar remains under pressure amid expectations of Fed policy easing
• Investors focus on US retail sales data for September
• EURUSD forecast for 25 November 2025: 1.1435

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate continues its correction for the second consecutive trading session, with buyers defending the key support level at 1.1505.

The US dollar remains under pressure. Growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December are weighing on the US currency. New York Fed President John Williams, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, and Fed Governor Christopher Waller have all voiced support for lowering rates at the December meeting. Their statements reinforce market confidence in upcoming monetary easing.

Markets are pricing in an 80% likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut next month, up from just 42% a week earlier, reflecting the sharp surge in expectations. Investors now turn their attention to the upcoming US retail sales and Producer Price Index reports for September.

EURUSD technical analysis

The EURUSD rate is correcting within a Triangle pattern. Buyers are holding the key support level at 1.1520, which coincides with the pattern’s lower boundary. The price bounced upwards from this level, indicating a short-term weakening of bearish momentum. The EURUSD outlook for today suggests a decline towards 1.1435.

The Stochastic Oscillator further confirms the bearish scenario, as its signal lines have turned downwards from the descending resistance line, increasing the probability of a renewed bearish impulse.

A breakout and consolidation below the 1.1490 level would serve as strong technical confirmation of continued downward momentum and indicate a breakdown of the Triangle’s lower boundary.

Summary

Buyers continue to defend the 1.1505 support level amid sharply rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut. However, EURUSD technical analysis still indicates a high probability of renewed bearish momentum with a target at 1.1435.

Open Account