EURUSD faces a test – Christine Lagarde prepares a surprise for the euro
The euro continues to decline and may test the support level near 1.1590. Discover more in our analysis for 21 October 2025.
EURUSD forecast: key trading points
- Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde
- EURUSD forecast for 21 October 2025: 1.1590 or 1.1700
Fundamental analysis
Today’s EURUSD forecast takes into account the upcoming speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde.
Kay expectations from Lagarde’s remarks:
- Lagarde will likely reiterate the ECB’s stance that future monetary policy decisions will remain dependent on actual data on inflation trends, labour market conditions, and the global economic outlook
- Economic resilience: she may highlight that the eurozone economy remains more resilient than expected despite external shocks, geopolitical tensions, and trade uncertainties
- Inflation and interest rate stance: Lagarde could emphasize the need to keep inflation risks under control even amid slower growth. She may signal that interest rates will not be lowered without clear evidence of sustainable price stability
- Geopolitical and trade focus: the speech might touch upon global trade tensions, tariffs, rare-earth materials, and the role of the euro in the global economy
Overall, the outlook for 21 October 2025 depends heavily on Lagarde’s tone, with dovish comments likely to weaken the euro, while a more hawkish stance could support the currency.
EURUSD technical analysis
On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair has formed a Shooting Star reversal pattern near the upper Bollinger Band. The pair now continues its downward move following the signal from the pattern. Given that prices remain within an ascending channel, the pair may test the support level near 1.1590. A bounce from this mark could signal the resumption of the bullish trend.
However, today’s forecast also considers an alternative scenario, where the EURUSD rate could skip the correction and rise directly towards 1.1700.
Summary
The euro is losing ground ahead of Christine Lagarde’s speech. EURUSD technical analysis suggests a likely dip towards 1.1590 before growth.
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.