EURUSD braces for volatility – Luis de Guindos’ speech may set the tone for the week

Ahead of the speech by Luis de Guindos, the euro has a chance to recover its position, with an upside target for the EURUSD pair at 1.1660. Find more details in our analysis for 15 October 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• Speech by European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos
• Current trend: moving upwards
• EURUSD forecast for 15 October 2025: 1.1660

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD forecast for today factors in the upcoming speech by ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos.

Key expectations from his address:

• Data dependence

De Guindos is likely to reiterate that any policy adjustments will depend on incoming macroeconomic data, including inflation, growth, and employment, which remains the standard ECB stance in periods of uncertainty.

• Comments on inflation

He may discuss how inflation approaching the 2% target affects the possibility of further easing or maintaining the current rate levels. The ECB has previously highlighted downside inflation risks as a factor guiding its cautious approach.

• Euro’s exchange rate and its role

Given the euro’s significant appreciation in 2025, Luis de Guindos may express concern that an overly strong euro could threaten export competitiveness and dampen inflation. He has previously warned that levels above 1.20 could pose challenges for the eurozone economy.

• Caution against surprises

He will likely urge caution, pointing to rising economic and geopolitical risks, trade tensions, and external shocks – a tone typical for ECB officials during uncertain periods.

EURUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band. Currently, the pair continues its upward wave in line with this signal. Since prices remain within the ascending channel, there is still the potential for growth towards the nearest 1.1660 resistance level. A breakout above this mark would open the way for a continued upward movement.

At the same time, today’s EURUSD forecast also considers an alternative scenario, where the pair could correct towards 1.1590 before resuming growth.

Summary

The ECB Vice President’s speech could have a positive impact on the EURUSD rate. Technical analysis suggests a potential upward move towards 1.1660.

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