Euro weakness vs. dollar strength: Nonfarm Payrolls may trigger EURUSD move
Ahead of fundamental data releases from the eurozone and the US, the EURUSD pair may test the 1.1750 level. Discover more in our analysis for 5 September 2025.
EURUSD forecast: key trading points
- Eurozone Q2 GDP: previously at 0.1%, projected at 0.1%
- US Nonfarm Payrolls: previously at 73 thousand, projected at 75 thousand
- EURUSD forecast for 5 September 2025: 1.1750
Fundamental analysis
GDP is the total value of all goods and services produced in the country, calculated based on final output excluding raw materials.
The forecast for 5 September 2025 does not appear optimistic, suggesting that eurozone GDP may remain at 0.1%. If the actual reading is equal to or below expectations, it may negatively affect the euro and trigger a correction in the EURUSD rate.
According to the forecast for 5 September 2025, US Nonfarm Payrolls may increase to 75 thousand from 73 thousand in the previous period. If actual results match expectations, markets may see increased volatility and temporary US dollar strength. The release of Nonfarm Payrolls almost always stirs market activity and can either support the US dollar or cause it to lose ground.
Today’s EURUSD forecast also takes into account that the US unemployment rate for August may rise to 4.3% from 4.2% previously.
EURUSD technical analysis
On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair formed an Inverted Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band. At this stage, it continues to develop an upward wave in line with the signal. Since the pair remains within an ascending channel, it still has chances for growth towards the nearest resistance level at 1.1750. A breakout above this resistance would open the way for further upward momentum.
At the same time, the EURUSD rate could correct towards 1.1625 before resuming growth.
Summary
Today’s EURUSD forecast favours the USD, as eurozone data may weaken the euro. However, EURUSD technical analysis suggests potential growth towards the 1.1750 resistance level.
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.