EURUSD declines despite Fed uncertainty

The EURUSD pair is consolidating near a key support level, with the pair under pressure from weak US macroeconomic data. The current quote is 1.1619. Find more details in our analysis for 27 August 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• The US Consumer Confidence Index fell to 97.4 in August
• US durable goods orders dropped by 2.8% month-on-month in July
• Investors focus on the upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) release
• EURUSD forecast for 27 August 2025: 1.1730

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate remains under pressure, but buyers manage to hold the pair above the key support level at 1.1595. The US dollar continues to strengthen despite instability surrounding the Federal Reserve. On Monday, US President Donald Trump announced plans to dismiss Fed Governor Lisa Cook, accusing her of mortgage fraud.

The US Consumer Confidence Index in August dropped to 97.4. In July, the figure was revised to 98.7, while analysts expected growth to 105.8. At the same time, durable goods orders in July fell by 2.8% month-on-month, falling short of expectations of 4% growth. In June, the decline reached 9.4%.

Investors now focus on Friday’s release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. This data may provide clearer guidance on the central bank’s next monetary policy steps.

EURUSD technical analysis

The EURUSD rate is hovering above the 1.1595 support level, rebounding from the buying zone while remaining within the descending channel. The current dynamics point to a high probability of a bullish correction towards 1.1705.

Today’s EURUSD forecast suggests an upward move after rebounding from support. The Stochastic Oscillator gives a bullish signal: its lines have turned upwards from oversold territory, confirming the likelihood of short-term growth.

An additional supportive factor is that quotes remain above EMA-285, strengthening the potential for a corrective movement.

Summary

Weak US data and Fed-related uncertainty increase pressure on the dollar. EURUSD technical analysis points to a strong likelihood of corrective growth towards 1.1705, provided the 1.1595 support level remains intact.

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