EURUSD under pressure: probability of Fed rate cut declines

The EURUSD rate remains under pressure, edging lower amid revised Fed rate expectations and the release of the July meeting minutes. The current quote is 1.1587. Discover more in our analysis for 22 August 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• The July FOMC minutes showed that most Committee members view inflation risks as more significant than employment concerns
• Nearly all participants agreed that the rate should remain unchanged
• After the minutes were released, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September dropped to 73.3%
• EURUSD forecast for 22 August 2025: 1.1530

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is falling for the second consecutive session, with sellers managing to secure positions below the 1.1605 support level. The euro continues to weaken as markets await comments from Fed officials on the future course of monetary policy and the prospects of a September rate cut following signs of a cooling labour market.

Additional pressure on the euro came from the release of the July FOMC meeting minutes. The document revealed that most Committee members consider inflation risks more significant than employment threats. The minutes also showed that nearly all participants agreed to hold interest rates steady.

After the release, the market revised its expectations, with the likelihood of a September rate cut dropping to 73.3% from 82.4% the day before. This strengthened the bearish outlook for EURUSD and indicates continued pressure on the pair in the near term.

EURUSD technical analysis

The EURUSD rate remains within a descending channel. Sellers gained a foothold below the 1.1605 support level, increasing downside pressure on the pair and raising the likelihood of further declines.

Today’s EURUSD forecast suggests a move towards the next support level at 1.1530. The Stochastic Oscillator shows a bearish signal: its lines have turned downwards, confirming the persistent downward momentum.

Additional confirmation comes from a breakout below the channel’s lower boundary, with the price reaching new local lows.

Summary

The EURUSD pair continues to lose ground, pressured by expectations of a prolonged high Fed rate and reduced probability of a September cut. EURUSD technical analysis indicates sustained bearish momentum, with a high likelihood of a move towards the 1.1530 support level.

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