EURUSD holds steady ahead of Jerome Powell’s speech

The EURUSD rate is correcting within a sideways range as investors focus on Fed signals. The current quote is 1.1646. Discover more in our analysis for 21 August 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• Fed minutes showed that most policymakers viewed the risk of accelerating inflation as greater than the threat of labour market weakness
• Nearly all Fed officials backed keeping interest rates unchanged
• US crude oil inventories fell by 6.01 million barrels versus a forecasted decline of 1.3 million
• EURUSD forecast for 21 August 2025: 1.1820

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate remains in a narrow sideways range, where the pair has fluctuated for eleven trading days, showing only minor corrections. In the absence of key macroeconomic data, market focus shifted to the release of the Federal Reserve’s minutes.

The document revealed that most Fed officials in July considered the risk of accelerating inflation more significant than the threat of labour market weakness. Nearly all participants supported holding interest rates steady.

Investors are now awaiting Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech, hoping for signals on whether monetary authorities are ready to go against expectations of near-term easing. Futures currently price in an 82% likelihood of a 25-basis-point September rate cut, down from 94% a week earlier.

Meanwhile, US Department of Energy data showed a sharp decline in commercial crude inventories. Stocks fell by 6.01 million barrels over the week to 420.7 million barrels, while analysts had expected a drop of only 1.3 million barrels.

EURUSD technical analysis

The EURUSD rate is hovering within a Wedge pattern. An attempt to break below the 1.1620 support level has so far failed, keeping chances alive for an upward impulse.

Today’s EURUSD forecast suggests a move towards the key resistance level at 1.1820. The Stochastic Oscillator signals a bullish scenario: its lines turned upwards in oversold territory, confirming potential for corrective growth.

An additional bullish signal would be a breakout above the upper boundary of the Wedge pattern, with the price consolidating above 1.1685.

Summary

The EURUSD pair continues to consolidate, with further movement dependent on Fed signals and market sentiment regarding a rate cut. EURUSD technical analysis confirms upside potential towards 1.1820, provided the pair breaks above the upper boundary of the Wedge pattern.

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