EURUSD under pressure: politics and the Fed take centre stage
The EURUSD pair slipped to 1.1655. Markets are awaiting signals from Jackson Hole. Find more details in our analysis for 19 August 2025.
EURUSD forecast: key trading points
- The EURUSD pair came under local pressure
- The market remains nervous over politics and awaits signals from Jackson Hole
- EURUSD forecast for 19 August 2025: 1.1637-1.1723
Fundamental analysis
On Tuesday, the EURUSD rate fell to 1.1655. Investors focused on the key summit between US President Donald Trump and European leaders, aimed at discussing a peaceful settlement.
During the talks, Trump discussed possible security guarantees and announced follow-up meetings involving Russian and Ukrainian representatives, in which he would later take part. The Ukrainian side stated that the country would spend about 90 billion USD to purchase US weapons under these guarantees. The details of the deal are expected to be finalised within ten days.
On the monetary policy front, markets shift attention to the Federal Reserve’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, scheduled for this week. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to present his outlook on the economy and policy parameters.
The EURUSD forecast is cautious.
EURUSD technical analysis
On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair is trading within a narrow range after declining in late July. Support levels are at 1.1637 and 1.1586, with resistance near 1.1723.
Bollinger Bands have narrowed, reflecting lower volatility and a sideways trend. The Stochastic Oscillator signals oversold conditions, which may indicate a local upward rebound. MACD remains close to the zero line, confirming consolidation.
The market is waiting for external drivers. A breakout above 1.1723 would signal further growth, while a move below 1.1637 would open the way for a test of the 1.1586 support level.
Summary
The EURUSD pair fell to 1.1655 due to rising risks. The EURUSD forecast for today, 19 August 2025, suggests range-bound fluctuations between 1.1637 and 1.1723.
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.