EURUSD retraces after sell-off, focus turns to the Fed

The EURUSD pair is recovering after a sharp decline, although bearish pressure remains amid uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with the price currently at 1.1553. Discover more in our analysis for 30 July 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• The euro weakened due to reassessment of the risks tied to the US-EU trade deal
• Investors have adopted a wait-and-see approach ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting
• Markets expect signals of a potential Fed rate cut in September
• EURUSD forecast for 30 July 2025: 1.1355

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is rebounding after two days of steep losses, during which the euro suffered notable declines. Sellers are attempting to secure a foothold below the key support level of 1.1575, testing the bulls' resolve to maintain control.

The euro’s weakness followed a market reassessment of the consequences of the US-EU trade agreement. Market participants are now taking a wait-and-see approach ahead of the Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate decision. While traders broadly expect the Fed to hold rates steady, the spotlight remains on accompanying comments that could signal a rate cut in September.

Additional pressure on the Fed comes from President Donald Trump, who continues to push for cheaper borrowing costs. FOMC members Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman – considered potential successors to the Federal Reserve Chairman – are expected to present contrasting views at the upcoming meeting.

EURUSD technical analysis

The EURUSD rate is correcting within a broader downtrend and has consolidated below the crucial 1.1575 support level, indicating intensified bearish pressure and a high probability of a Double Top pattern taking shape. The pair has exited its short-term ascending channel, initiating a downward impulse.

Today’s EURUSD forecast suggests a further decline towards 1.1355, targeting the lower boundary of the main channel. Stochastic Oscillator readings confirm this bearish setup: the signal lines have exited overbought territory and are directed downwards, indicating persistent selling pressure.

A consolidation below the 1.1540 level would reinforce the downside scenario.

Summary

The fundamental backdrop for the EURUSD pair remains tense: sellers maintain control while the Fed’s policy uncertainty increases the risk of further downside. EURUSD technical analysis supports the bearish scenario, with a Double Top pattern and a breakout below key support levels pointing to a high probability of a drop towards 1.1355.