EURUSD under pressure: Trump hits markets with new tariffs

The US tariffs on imports from the EU are weighing on the EURUSD rate, pushing it lower. The price currently stands at 1.1666. Discover more in our analysis for 14 July 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• Trump’s trade initiative escalates global trade tensions
• Markets await US inflation data due on Tuesday
• Traders expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by around 50 basis points by the end of the year
• EURUSD forecast for 14 July 2025: 1.1825

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate continues to decline on Monday, consolidating below the key support level at 1.1685. The pair is under pressure from a stronger US dollar amid new statements from US President Donald Trump on tariff policy.

Trump announced a 30% tariff on imports from the European Union and Mexico, effective from 1 August. This move adds to the already tense global trade environment. Nevertheless, investor reaction remains restrained – the market increasingly ignores such threats, as their actual impact on the US dollar has been limited.

Market participants now focus on the upcoming US inflation data, due on Tuesday. The forecast suggests a moderate rise in consumer prices in June. These figures may clarify the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook. Currently, markets expect a rate cut of about 50 basis points by the end of the year.

EURUSD technical analysis

The EURUSD rate has consolidated below the EMA-65, signalling dominant downward pressure. Sellers have secured positions below the 1.1685 support level, which now acts as immediate resistance. However, the pair has neared a strong support area around 1.1635.

Today’s EURUSD forecast assumes a rebound from the lower boundary of the bullish channel with a recovery towards 1.1825. The Stochastic Oscillator supports the rebound scenario: the indicator has nearly reached the oversold zone, and the signal lines are beginning to turn upwards, indicating weakening bearish momentum.

Further confirmation of the end of the bearish correction could come with a breakout above the upper boundary of the descending channel and a consolidation above 1.1685.

Summary

The fundamental background continues to exert downward pressure on the EURUSD pair ahead of the US inflation data release and amid Washington’s intensified trade rhetoric. At the same time, EURUSD technical analysis suggests a high probability of a rebound from the 1.1635 support level, with a potential recovery towards 1.1825.