The Fed keeps the US dollar under pressure – EURUSD heads for new highs

The EURUSD rate is slightly declining, while the US dollar remains under pressure due to the Fed's stance. Current quote – 1.1796. Details – in our analysis for 2 July 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• Pressure on the US dollar persists due to the Fed’s dovish sentiments
• Jerome Powell noted that a rate cut in July is not excluded
• The number of job openings in the US rose by 374,000 in May
• EURUSD forecast for 2 July 2025: 1.1915

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is correcting after nine consecutive sessions of growth. Pressure on the US dollar remains due to the Fed’s dovish stance and risks associated with President Donald Trump’s fiscal policy.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell confirmed that the regulator plans to wait for evidence of the impact of US trade policy on inflation before deciding to cut the base interest rate. Powell emphasised that a rate cut in July is not excluded, but he did not state that this decision would definitely be made.

Additionally, the number of job openings in the US unexpectedly increased by 374,000 in May, reaching the highest level since November 2024 – 7.769 million. Analysts had expected a decline to 7.102 million, highlighting stability in the labour market.

EURUSD technical analysis

The EURUSD rate is declining after rebounding from the upper boundary of the bullish channel. Despite the pressure from bears, the upward momentum remains, with quotes staying above the 65-period Moving Average. The EURUSD forecast for today indicates a high probability of further growth towards 1.1915, especially after a potential bounce from the lower boundary of the short-term upward channel. The Stochastic Oscillator indicates an imminent reversal and remains above the upward trend line, confirming the prevailing bullish sentiment. A breakout of the 1.1845 level will become an important technical signal for continued growth towards the next target at 1.1915.

Summary

Pressure on the US dollar remains despite the increase in job openings in the US, confirming the continuing impact of the Fed’s dovish policy. The EURUSD technical analysis indicates a high probability of further growth to the 1.1915 level.