EURUSD: pair declines, time for a correction?

EURUSD fell below 1.1700 on Friday as the US dollar gained support from strong Durable Goods Orders data. Today, market focus turns to US inflation data – the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index. Full details in our analysis for 27 June 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: today the market awaits the US PCE Price Index report
• Current trend: upward trend remains
• EURUSD forecast for 27 June 2025: 1.1640 and 1.1745

Fundamental analysis

EURUSD quotes show a moderate correction from daily highs amid mixed US economic data. Q1 GDP fell by 0.5%, worse than the expected 0.2% decline. However, Durable Goods Orders unexpectedly jumped by 16.4%, significantly above the forecast of 8.5%.

Today, the market focuses on US inflation data – the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index. Expectations suggest an increase of 0.1%. Weak inflation growth could provide the Federal Reserve with grounds for a rate cut at its upcoming monetary policy meeting.

EURUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, EURUSD shows a downward correction, falling this morning below 1.1700, with further decline towards support at 1.1640 possible. The daily trend remains upward, so growth may resume once the correction ends.

In the short-term EURUSD forecast, if bears manage to keep the price below 1.1700, a move down to 1.1640 is likely. However, if bulls regain control and push quotes back above 1.1700, growth towards resistance at 1.1745 and beyond may continue.

Summary

EURUSD fell below 1.1700 in a downward correction. Today’s market focus is on US inflation data, with the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index to be released.