The dollar falls – EURUSD rises: what’s next?

The drop in Nonfarm Payrolls has hit the US dollar, with EURUSD continuing its upward move towards 1.1460. Discover more in our analysis for 9 June 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• Nonfarm Payrolls data weakened the US dollar
• The ECB may pause its rate adjustments
• EURUSD forecast for 9 June 2025: 1.1460

Fundamental analysis

Today’s EURUSD forecast favours the European currency. After the release of the Nonfarm Payrolls report, the dollar keeps losing ground against the euro. The actual figure came in at 149K, down from 142K in the previous period. While the drop might seem marginal at first glance, combined with other weak US macro data, it exerted pressure on the dollar and triggered an upward move in EURUSD.

Investors are growing cautious about the weakening US dollar and seeking safe havens for their assets. Meanwhile, after initiating a rate cut cycle, the ECB has signalled a possible pause in further rate moves, which has strengthened the euro and supported the current rally in EURUSD.

EURUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, EURUSD formed a reversal pattern — Inverted Hammer — near the lower Bollinger Band. The pair is now developing an upward wave as it follows through on that signal. As long as the price remains within the upward channel, a rise toward the next resistance level at 1.1460 is expected. A breakout above this level could open the way for further upward momentum.

However, a corrective pullback to 1.1385 cannot be ruled out, potentially followed by a stronger bullish wave after testing the support.

Summary

The forecast for 9 June 2025 clearly favours the euro. Weaker US economic data, together with the technical picture, point to a continued rise in EURUSD toward the resistance level at 1.1460 USD.