EURUSD on the verge of correction, buyers losing momentum

The EURUSD pair is correcting despite persistent pressure on the US dollar from weak macroeconomic data. Find out more in our analysis for 5 June 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• The ADP report showed the US private sector added only 37 thousand jobs in May
• The US ISM services PMI fell to 49.9 points in May
• The drop in ISM reflects a decline in business activity
• EURUSD forecast for 5 June 2025: 1.1270

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is showing a slight decline. Sellers continue to defend the key resistance level at 1.1425, holding back further upward attempts.

The US dollar came under pressure after disappointing macroeconomic figures. According to the ADP report, the private sector created just 37 thousand jobs in May, well below the forecast of 80 thousand, marking the weakest performance in two years.

Further downside came from the ISM services PMI, which fell to 49.9 in May, dipping below the 50 mark for the first time in a year, indicating contraction. This reading missed the 52.6 forecast and points to a sharp decline in new business amid rising resource costs.

EURUSD technical analysis

While the EURUSD rate maintains its upward trajectory, the failure to reach a new local high suggests weakening bullish momentum. Today's EURUSD forecast anticipates a potential breakout below the support level and a corrective move towards 1.1270. The Stochastic Oscillator signals a likely bearish turn, with its values rebounding from the resistance level, forming a downward reversal. A breakout below the lower boundary of the bullish channel will confirm the bearish scenario, with the price consolidating below 1.1355.

Summary

Despite weak US macroeconomic data, the EURUSD pair still struggles to break above the 1.1425 resistance level, indicating persistent seller pressure. EURUSD technical analysis points to waning upward momentum and an increased risk of a correction towards 1.1270.