EURUSD in positive territory: cautious climb may turn into a confident rally

The EURUSD pair begins the week on a positive note, trading around 1.1335. Investors remain focused on trade signals and await the Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate decision. Find more details in our analysis for 5 May 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• The EURUSD pair maintains its upward momentum and is aiming higher
• The odds of a Fed rate cut in June have dropped significantly
• EURUSD forecast for 5 May 2025: 1.1382

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate climbed to 1.1335 on Monday. Market participants remain cautious, seeking more clarity on the trade relationship between the US and China. Over the weekend, US President Donald Trump reiterated that Beijing is interested in a deal, but refrained from providing any further details.

The market’s attention is now shifting to the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting this week. While the interest rate is expected to remain unchanged, the Fed’s accompanying statement will be crucial.

Recent US labour market data for April has lowered the chances of a rate cut in June. Confidence in the Fed maintaining its current monetary stance has strengthened, with the probability of a reduction now standing at 37%, down sharply from 64% a month earlier.

The EURUSD forecast is favourable.

EURUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair is showing potential for a continued upward movement with a target at 1.1382. If the price consolidates above this level, the next milestone would be the 1.1573 mark.

Summary

The EURUSD pair continues its upward trajectory, although overall caution prevails due to trade uncertainty. The EURUSD forecast for today, 5 May 2025, expects a moderate climb to 1.1382, which may pave the way for a stronger rally.