AUDUSD enters a correction amid USD strength

The AUDUSD rate dipped to the 0.6440 support level amid USD strengthening following US labour market statistics. Discover more in our analysis for 21 November 2025.

AUDUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: the US dollar received support from the Nonfarm Payrolls data
• Current trend: correcting downwards
• AUDUSD forecast for 21 November 2025: 0.6400 or 0.6500

Fundamental analysis

The Australian dollar came under pressure after the release of US labour market data for September. Despite an increase in the US unemployment rate to 4.4%, Nonfarm Payrolls showed solid growth of 119 thousand. Analysts believe the Federal Reserve will pause and avoid cutting rates in December.

Annual wage growth in Australia remained stable at 3.4% in Q3, in line with expectations and highlighting the underlying strength of the labour market. Markets currently price in only a 40% probability of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia by May next year.

AUDUSD technical analysis

The AUDUSD pair is undergoing a downward correction following its recent strong rise. The Alligator indicator has turned downwards, suggesting further correction. The key support level is now 0.6440.

The short-term AUDUSD forecast suggests growth towards the resistance level near 0.6500 if bulls regain control. However, if bears gain a foothold below 0.6440, the pair could decline towards the 0.6400 support level.

Summary

The AUDUSD rate has fallen to the 0.6440 support level. The US dollar strengthened following September labour market data, and the market now doubts that the Federal Reserve will lower rates in December.

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