AUDUSD holds above 0.6500 ahead of US jobs data

The AUDUSD pair shows moderate growth, consolidating above the 0.6500 mark. Today, the market focus is on US labour data. Discover more in our analysis for 5 September 2025.

AUDUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: today, the market awaits US employment statistics, with Nonfarm Payrolls and the unemployment rate scheduled for release
• Current trend: trading within a broad range
• AUDUSD forecast for 5 September 2025: 0.6600 or 0.6420

Fundamental analysis

Positive Australian economic data released this week has led investors to scale back expectations of further monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Markets are now pricing in an 80% probability of a quarter-point rate cut in November, down from 100% earlier in the week.

Economists note that household consumption growth and improving sentiment are supporting the Australian dollar, while steady consumer spending and a stable labour market could limit further rate cuts.

Today, market participants will focus on the US August employment report, with Nonfarm Payrolls (expected to increase by 75 thousand) and the unemployment rate (forecast at 4.3%) scheduled for release.

AUDUSD technical analysis

The AUDUSD rate is showing moderate growth after rebounding from the daily support level at 0.6420. The Alligator indicator is pointing upwards, confirming a bullish price momentum. The key resistance level stands at the yearly high of 0.6625.

The short-term AUDUSD forecast suggests growth towards resistance near 0.6600 if bulls maintain momentum. Conversely, if bears push the price lower, the pair could retreat towards the support level around 0.6420.

Summary

AUDUSD quotes are moderately rising, holding above the 0.6500 mark. Today, the market is awaiting US labour statistics, particularly Nonfarm Payrolls and the unemployment rate.

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