AUDUSD decline slows ahead of Powell’s speech

The AUDUSD rate continues to fall amid expectations of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech, with the price currently at 0.6417. Find more details in our analysis for 22 August 2025.

AUDUSD forecast: key trading points

• The AUDUSD pair is falling for the fifth consecutive session, but reaching a key support level may slow further decline
• Markets have almost fully priced in a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia in September
• Growth in business activity in Australia may provide temporary support for the pair
• AUDUSD forecast for 22 August 2025: 0.6355

Fundamental analysis

The AUDUSD rate is declining for the fifth consecutive session, but sellers have reached a key support level, which may slow further downside. The US dollar has shown a consistently positive trend throughout the week as markets prepare for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech in Jackson Hole, which could determine short-term interest rate dynamics.

Domestically, markets have almost fully priced in a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia in September to 3.35% with a possible subsequent adjustment to 3.10%. At the same time, the rise in business activity may provide temporary support for the Australian dollar: the manufacturing index accelerated to 59.2 in August, while the services index rose to 55.1 from 54.1 a month earlier.

AUDUSD technical analysis

The AUDUSD rate remains within a descending channel. Sellers consolidated below the 0.6440 level, which increases downside pressure on the pair and raises the likelihood of further bearish momentum.

Today’s AUDUSD forecast suggests a decline towards 0.6355. The Stochastic Oscillator shows a bearish signal, with its lines bouncing from the oversold level and approaching the resistance line.

Additional confirmation of this scenario comes from a breakout below the lower boundary of the bearish channel, with the price reaching new local lows.

Summary

The AUDUSD pair continues to fall, but reaching key support and rising business activity create conditions for possible short-term stabilisation. AUDUSD technical analysis points to persistent bearish pressure, with a likely decline towards the 0.6355 level.

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