AUDUSD trapped in a Triangle: market holds breath before a breakout

The AUDUSD pair is rising after rebounding from support, with traders closely watching the 0.6495 resistance level. The price currently stands at 0.6433. Discover more in our analysis for 23 May 2025.

AUDUSD forecast: key trading points

• Expectations of a Fed rate cut in the second half of 2025 support AUDUSD's current uptrend
• Traders anticipate a breakout from the consolidation range, which could trigger a strong directional move
• AUDUSD forecast for 23 May 2025: 0.6545

Fundamental analysis

The AUDUSD rate strengthens but remains confined within a sideways consolidation. The US dollar is under pressure due to ongoing fiscal risks and the lack of progress in trade negotiations. Additional support for the Australian currency came from expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in the second half of 2025.

Earlier this week, the Reserve Bank of Australia lowered its key rate by 25 basis points. Markets now price in over a 50% likelihood of a second rate cut at the next meeting in July.

Against this backdrop, AUDUSD trading remains mixed and volatile. The price is squeezed in a consolidation range with the upper boundary at 0.6495 and the lower one at 0.6360. Traders are closely monitoring this phase as such consolidations often end with a strong breakout.

AUDUSD technical analysis

The AUDUSD rate is consolidating within a Triangle pattern. Today’s AUDUSD forecast suggests the formation of a bullish impulse, with potential growth towards 0.6545.

Technical indicators support the bullish scenario: the price is holding above the Moving Averages, while the Stochastic Oscillator has bounced from the oversold area, indicating the beginning of a new upward phase.

A confident consolidation above 0.6485 will confirm the scenario, signalling an exit from the consolidation range.

Summary

The AUDUSD rate is in a consolidation phase within a Triangle pattern. However, both technical signals and fundamentals support the likelihood of a bullish breakout, with a growth target at 0.6545. A confident consolidation above the 0.6485 resistance level would validate the breakout and mark the start of a new uptrend.