BTC is seizing the opportunity and rising: the market is ready to buy

The BTC price stood at 63,248 USD on Monday. Conditions for buyers are improving. Discover more in our analysis for 6 July 2026.

BTCUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The BTC price rose in response to an improving macroeconomic backdrop
• The sustained upward momentum remains in place
• BTCUSD forecast for 6 July 2026: 63,900

Fundamental analysis

The Bitcoin price is hovering around 63,248 USD on Monday. The main driver for BTC in recent days has been weak US labour market data, which has significantly reduced expectations for further Fed rate hikes. In addition, the price was supported by the first return of inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs in ten days. Easing regulatory conditions in the US and improving overall risk appetite also bolstered the markets.

Despite ETF outflows at the end of June, sentiment is gradually improving. Long-term holders started to accumulate Bitcoin again around 60,000, with the volume of coins in their hands reaching a record 14.7 million BTC. An important event of the week was Strategy’s decision to sell 1.25 billion USD worth of Bitcoin to replenish its USD reserves.

The macroeconomic backdrop looks favourable for digital assets. The best quarter for US stock indices since 2020, lower inflation expectations, and signals of a softer approach by US regulators towards cryptocurrencies supported investor interest. At the same time, the market continues to watch Federal Reserve rhetoric closely: any more hawkish comments may strengthen the dollar again and limit the upside potential of cryptocurrencies.

From a technical perspective, the situation has improved, but it is premature to talk about a complete reversal. Bitcoin has consolidated above 62,000 and completed the local recovery phase. However, the long-term downtrend that formed after the all-time high remains in place.

This week, investors will be keeping an eye on the release of the minutes of the June Federal Reserve meeting, business activity data, the US trade balance, jobless claims, and speeches by Federal Reserve officials. These events may determine the further direction of the dollar and, accordingly, sentiment in the cryptocurrency market.

The BTC forecast is moderately positive.

Technical outlook

On the hourly chart, BTC maintains its steady upward momentum after a confident rebound from the 57,800 area. The price is consistently forming higher lows and highs, having consolidated above 62,000. At the end of last week, buyers tested the 63,900 resistance level, after which the market moved into moderate profit-taking. At the same time, quotes continue to hold above the middle Bollinger Band, indicating that buyers still have the upper hand.

The technical picture remains favourable. The nearest support level lies in the 62,600–62,800 zone, where the area of recent consolidation is located. Stronger support stands around 61,900–62,000. The main resistance level is 63,900. A confident breakout above this mark will open the way for an upward movement, with the prospect of testing the 65,000 area.

The indicators confirm continued bullish sentiment, although they warn of a possible short-term pause. MACD remains in positive territory despite some slowdown in growth, suggesting continued upward momentum. The Stochastic Oscillator has turned downwards after leaving overbought territory, signalling the probability of a local correction or sideways consolidation. As long as BTC holds above 62,000, the baseline scenario remains continued recovery with another attempt to break through 63,900.

BTCUSD overview

• Asset: BTCUSD
• Timeframe: H1 (intraday)
• Trend: upward
• Key resistance levels: 63,900 and 65,000
• Key support levels: 62,600 and 62,000

Bitcoin trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation above the 63,900 USD resistance level would confirm continued upward momentum and open the way to the next target around 65,000 USD. The recovery in inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, lower expectations of a Fed rate hike, and improving overall risk appetite continue to support growth.

• Take Profit: 65,000
• Stop Loss: 63,300

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below the 62,600 USD support level would signal a correction after the recent rise. In this case, the nearest target could be the 62,000 USD area, where a stronger demand zone is located.

• Take Profit: 62,000
• Stop Loss: 63,000

Risk factors

The key risks to the BTCUSD upside scenario remain a possible hawkish shift in Federal Reserve rhetoric following the release of the June meeting minutes, renewed outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs, and a stronger US dollar. Despite consolidation above 62,000 USD, the long-term downtrend after the all-time high has not yet been completely broken. As a result, elevated volatility remains at the start of the week.

Summary

The BTC price is rising due to a favourable external backdrop. The BTCUSD forecast for today, 6 July 2026, suggests an attempt to attack 63,900.

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