Walt Disney: fundamental analysis and technical outlook on DIS shares

Disney’s strong quarterly results, combined with ESPN’s entry into the direct-to-consumer market and signals from the Federal Reserve regarding potential rate cuts, are creating favourable conditions for further gains in the company’s share price.

The Walt Disney Company (NYSE: DIS) has published results for Q3 of the 2025 financial year. Revenue reached 23.65 billion USD (+2% year-on-year), slightly below market expectations, while adjusted earnings per share (EPS) came in at 1.61 USD, ahead of analyst forecasts. GAAP earnings rose to 2.92 USD, supported by a one-off tax benefit linked to Hulu.

For the first time, Disney’s streaming segment reported consistent profitability: the Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) division generated 346 million USD in profit, while its subscriber base expanded to 183 million. By contrast, linear television continued to decline, whereas the Experiences division strengthened its position, delivering 2.52 billion USD in operating profit (+13% year-on-year). The sports arm (ESPN) also improved performance, with operating profit climbing to around 1.04 billion USD (+29% year-on-year).

Management raised its forecast for adjusted EPS in FY2025 to 5.85 USD and expects streaming operating profit of about 1.3 billion USD by year-end. The company also confirmed the launch of ESPN-DTC on 21 August and announced several major partnerships, including a deal with WWE worth more than 1.6 billion USD and plans to expand cooperation with the NFL.

Following the earnings release, Disney’s shares fell by more than 2%, as investors reacted cautiously to the weaker revenue growth and deteriorating linear TV performance, despite strong profitability and an upgraded full-year outlook. The next day, selling pressure continued, driving the shares down to 112 USD and extending the overall decline to roughly 5% versus the pre-results level. Analyst commentary added to the pressure, highlighting risks associated with costly sports rights and the ongoing structural downturn in linear television.

By 22 August, however, the shares had fully recovered, closing at 119 USD. The rebound was supported by positive sentiment surrounding ESPN’s DTC launch on 21 August, along with a broader market rally after Jerome Powell signalled the possibility of interest rate cuts.

This article examines The Walt Disney Company and its business model, provides a fundamental analysis of Disney’s financial results, and offers a technical analysis of Walt Disney’s shares, assessing their current performance as the basis for a DIS stock forecast for 2025.

About The Walt Disney Company

The Walt Disney Company is one of the world’s largest media and entertainment corporations, founded on 16 October 1923 by brothers Walter and Roy Disney. The company is renowned for its live-action films and animated cartoons, including iconic creations such as ‘Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs’. Its portfolio includes Lucasfilm, Marvel Studios, Pixar, and 20th Century Studios. In addition to film production, Disney operates theme parks and resorts worldwide – Disney World and Disneyland – and broadcasts television through ABC, ESPN, and National Geographic. In 2019, the company launched the Disney+ streaming service. Another key business area is producing and licensing merchandise related to its popular franchises. Disney went public on the New York Stock Exchange on 12 November 1957, trading under the DIS ticker.

The Walt Disney Company’s main financial flows

Walt Disney’s revenue is derived from several key sources, spanning a wide range of entertainment and media operations. Disney’s key revenue-generating segments are outlined below:

• Media Networks: television channels and cable networks (ABC, Disney Channel, ESPN, FX, National Geographic, and others). Revenue streams include advertising, licence fees, paid subscriptions, and the sale of broadcasting rights
• Subscriptions and International Operations: streaming services (Disney+, ESPN+, and Hulu) and international trade. The main sources of income are subscriptions to streaming platforms and the sale of content and licences in foreign markets
• Parks, Experiences, and Consumer Products: theme parks, resorts, cruises, and hotels. Revenue is generated through ticket sales, holiday packages, souvenirs, licensed toys, and other goods and services
• Studio Entertainment: film production and distribution, home video sales, and music publishing. Revenue comes from cinema distribution, the sale of digital and physical content, and proceeds from music soundtrack and licensing

In its financial reports, Disney categorises all revenue into three key segments:

1. Entertainment: film production, TV programming, cinema distribution, content sales and licensing, soundtrack releases, and Broadway productions.

2. Sports: operations related to the ESPN brand, including cable and digital sports broadcasts, broadcasting rights for sports events, the ESPN+ streaming platform, advertising, content licensing, and sports analytical programs and events.

3. Experiences: theme parks (Disneyland, Disney World, and international parks), cruises (Disney Cruise Line), resorts and hotels, attractions, as well as events and client engagement activities related to the Disney brand (interactive shows and VIP tours).

4. Eliminations: reflects fees paid by Hulu to ESPN and the Entertainment segment’s linear television business for the rights to broadcast their channels on the Hulu Live platform, as well as fees paid by ABC and Disney+ to ESPN for carrying certain sports content on the ABC channel and Disney+.

The Walt Disney Company’s strengths and weaknesses

Walt Disney’s strengths:

• Popular brand and recognition: Disney is one of the most well-known companies in the world
• Unique intellectual property: the Marvel, Pixar, and Star Wars franchises, classic animated characters, and original content
• Diversified business: Disney generates revenue across multiple segments, including media, streaming, merchandise, and films
• Global presence: theme parks, films, and media cater not only to the US but also to international markets
• Business integration: comprehensive integration across its businesses enables the company to leverage its assets as effectively as possible, with films and shows serving as the basis for themed attractions, merchandise, and licensing

Weaknesses of Walt Disney’s business:

• Reliance on flagship Marvel and Star Wars franchises: failures to release content could negatively impact Disney’s revenue
• Dependence on economic conditions: theme parks and resorts, which are significant revenue streams, are highly sensitive to economic conditions, tourism trends, and global events (for example, the COVID-19 pandemic)
• High streaming costs: Disney+ incurs substantial content costs and faces intense competition, which increases the financial burden on the company’s expenditure budget
• Slow adaptation to audience preferences: Disney faces challenges in promptly responding to changing preferences. Its large-scale structure delays decision-making, and frequent criticism of the company’s cultural and social policies poses serious reputational risks

Disney’s key competitors are Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN), Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), Comcast Corporation (NASDAQ: CMCSA), NBCUniversal, Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX), Paramount Global (NASDAQ: PARA), Sony Pictures, and Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. (NYSE: WBD). Each company holds a leadership position in specific business areas (for example, Netflix in streaming, Universal Studios in theme parks, and Warner Bros. Discovery in film and television content production). However, the combined strengths of Disney’s diverse business segments, scale, and powerful brand give it significant advantages over its competitors.

The Walt Disney Company Q4 2024 financial results

On 14 November, The Walt Disney Company released its report for Q4 fiscal 2024, which ended on 28 September. Key report data is outlined below:

• Revenue: 22.57 billion USD (+6%)
• Net income: 0.95 billion USD (-6%)
• Earnings per Share: 1.14 USD (+39%)
• Operating profit: 3.65 billion USD (+23%)

Revenue by segment:

• Entertainment: 10.83 billion USD (+14%)
• Sports: 3.91 billion USD (unchanged)
• Experiences: 8.24 billion USD (+1%)

Segment operating income:

• Entertainment: 1.07 billion USD (+353%)
• Sports: 0.92 billion USD (-5%)
• Experiences: 1.66 billion USD (+6%)

All indicators (except net income) showed growth. The company’s management attributed the decline in net income to increased spending on content production and marketing, as well as higher costs for developing streaming services (Disney+, Hulu).

The company projected continued growth in its key financial indicators in 2025 but predicted a potential decline in the number of new Disney+ subscribers in Q1 2025 compared to Q4 2024.

Disney plans a share buyback program worth 3.00 billion USD and dividend distribution this year. Dividends will increase by 33%, rising to 0.50 USD per share, and will be paid in two instalments in January and July 2025.

In 2026, Walt Disney predicted a slower percentage growth rate in the Sports segment, with significant single-digit growth in the Experiences segment and double-digit growth in the Entertainment sector.

Based on the company’s 2025-2026 forecasts, key financial indicators were expected to rise further, which should positively impact dividend payouts and the share buyback program, ultimately leading to an increase in the stock price.

The Walt Disney Company Q1 2025 financial results

On 5 February, The Walt Disney Company released its report for Q1 fiscal 2025, which ended on 28 December 2024. Below are its key highlights:

• Revenue: 24.69 billion USD (+6%)
• Net income: 3.66 billion USD (+27%)
• Earnings per Share: 1.76 USD (+44%)
• Operating profit: 5.06 billion USD (+31%)

Revenue by segment:

• Entertainment: 10.87 billion USD (+9%)
• Sports: 4.85 billion USD (unchanged)
• Experiences: 9.41 billion USD (+3%)

Segment operating income:

• Entertainment: 1.70 billion USD (+95%)
• Sports: 247 million USD (vs a loss of 103 million USD)
• Experiences: 3.11 billion USD (+31%)

CEO Robert Alan Iger emphasised the company’s strong start to the new financial year and expressed confidence in its growth strategy. He highlighted significant successes in streaming services, including the integration of ESPN into Disney+, as well as consistently strong performance in the theme park and resort segment.

Looking ahead, Disney forecast high single-digit growth in adjusted EPS compared to 2024. The company also expected operating income in the streaming segment (Disney+, Hulu, ESPN+) to increase by approximately 875 million USD. As previously projected, Disney planned to allocate 3.00 billion USD to share buybacks in 2025.

Although The Walt Disney Company exceeded revenue and income forecasts in Q1 2025, its stock edged down by the end of the trading session on the day of the report release. This was primarily driven by a decrease of 700 thousand in Disney+ subscribers, raising concerns among investors about further growth in the streaming sector. Additionally, the company warned that subscriptions could decline further in Q2 due to the recent price increase, reinforcing the negative sentiment in the market.

The Walt Disney Company Q2 2025 financial results

On 7 May, The Walt Disney Company released its Q2 2025 financial report for the quarter ended 29 March 2025. Key figures are as follows:

• Revenue: 23.62 billion USD (+7%)
• Net income: 3.09 billion USD (+369%)
• Earnings per share: 1.45 USD (+20%)
• Operating profit: 4.43 billion USD (+15%)

Revenue by segment:

• Entertainment: 10.68 billion USD (+9%)
• Sports: 4.53 billion USD (+5%)
• Experiences: 8.89 billion USD (+6%)
• Eliminations: (484) million USD (compared to a loss of 418 million USD in the prior year)

Segment operating income:

• Entertainment: 1.26 billion USD (+61%)
• Sports: 0.69 billion USD (-12%)
• Experiences: 2.49 billion USD (+9%)

Walt Disney’s Q2 2025 financial report provided clear evidence that the company was successfully regaining momentum. Earnings per share rose 20% year-on-year, exceeding analyst expectations, while revenue advanced 7%. Following the release, the share price climbed 11%. Yet the most significant takeaway was not only the improvement in financial metrics, but also the firm confirmation that Disney’s relaunch strategy was beginning to deliver results.

One of the most notable announcements was the planned construction of a new theme park in Abu Dhabi. Importantly, Disney is not investing in the project itself – Miral is covering all costs, while Disney provides the creative input and will collect royalties. This asset-light strategy, with minimal capital expenditure, enables Disney to expand its international footprint without adding to its debt burden.

Despite the negative outlook expressed in the Q1 2025 report, Disney’s streaming platforms – particularly Disney+ and Hulu – added 2.5 million subscribers, bringing the total to 180.7 million. This growth contributed significantly to an increase in operating income. The success of theatrical releases such as Moana 2 and Marvel’s Thunderbolts not only boosted box office revenues but also increased streaming engagement and theme park attendance.

As of 29 March 2025, the company’s cash and cash equivalents stood at 5.85 billion USD, up from 5.48 billion USD on 28 December 2024. The increase in liquid assets highlights consistently positive cash flow and effective working capital management.

Total borrowings, including short-term obligations, declined to 42.9 billion USD at the end of Q2, down from 45.3 billion USD three months earlier.

Free cash flow for the reporting quarter amounted to 4.89 billion USD, underlining the company’s strong operating efficiency and ability to generate substantial liquidity to fund investment, service debt, and return cash to shareholders through dividends.

For Q3 2025, management guided to further subscriber growth and strengthening across all key segments. The full-year 2025 EPS forecast was raised to 5.75 USD, representing a 16% increase on 2024. Operating profit is expected to grow at a double-digit rate in Entertainment, by around 18% in Sports and by 6–8% in Experiences.

The Walt Disney Company’s Q3 2025 financial results

On 7 August, The Walt Disney Company released its report for Q3 of the 2025 financial year, which ended on 28 June 2025. The key figures are as follows:

• Revenue: 23.65 billion USD (+2%)
• Net income: 3.21 billion USD (+4%)
• Earnings per share: 1.61 USD (+16%)
• Operating profit: 4.57 billion USD (+8%)

Revenue by segment:

• Entertainment: 10.70 billion USD (+1%)
• Sports: 4.30 billion USD (-5%)
• Experiences: 9.08 billion USD (+8%)
• Eliminations: (448) million USD (vs a loss of 369 million USD in the prior year)

Segment operating income:

• Entertainment: 1.02 billion USD (-15%)
• Sports: 1.03 billion USD (+29%)
• Experiences: 2.51 billion USD (+13%)

In Q3 FY2025, Disney delivered modest growth, with revenue up 2% versus Q3 FY2024 and broadly flat compared with the previous quarter. Adjusted EPS rose to 1.61 USD, beating analyst expectations. On a GAAP basis, EPS reached 2.92 USD, though this was inflated by a one-off tax benefit linked to Hulu. Total operating profit across segments climbed 8% to 4.58 billion USD, indicating improved margins.

The Disney Entertainment segment reported revenue of 10.70 billion USD (+1% year-on-year), but operating profit fell 15% to 1.02 billion USD. The main pressure came from the decline in traditional TV and weakness in content sales and licensing, which failed to replicate the prior-year success of Inside Out 2, as well as higher film write-offs. Streaming was the key growth driver: Disney+ and Hulu, together with ESPN+, lifted revenue to 6.18 billion USD (+6% year-on-year) and delivered their first profit of 346 million USD versus a loss a year earlier. The subscriber base continued to expand: Disney+ reached 127.8 million (+1.8 million in the quarter), Hulu 55.5 million (+0.8 million), while ESPN+ remained steady at 24.1 million.

The Sports segment, led by ESPN, generated 4.31 billion USD in revenue (-5% year-on-year due to the removal of Star India), but operating profit rose 29% to 1.04 billion USD. In the US, ESPN was hit by higher NBA broadcasting rights costs, but overall results improved thanks to the absence of losses from Star India and stronger advertising revenue.

The Experiences segment, covering parks, resorts, and cruises, again proved the main cash generator. Revenue climbed to 9.09 billion USD (+8% year-on-year), while profit rose to 2.52 billion USD (+13% year-on-year). US parks and cruises delivered particularly strong growth, driven by higher guest spending and fleet expansion. International parks recorded moderate revenue growth, though profits edged lower. Consumer Products revenue increased 3% to 0.99 billion USD, with profit of 444 million USD (+1% year-on-year).

Management reaffirmed its strategy of strengthening streaming: Hulu will be integrated into the Disney+ app next year, while ESPN will launch as a standalone streaming service on 21 August 2025. The company is also considering a deal with the NFL, under which ESPN could acquire NFL Network and other assets in exchange for a 10% NFL stake in ESPN, though the agreement has not yet been finalised.

For Q4, Disney forecasts subscriber growth at Disney+ and Hulu of more than 10 million combined and expects adjusted EPS for full-year 2025 of around 5.85 USD (+18% year-on-year). Operating profit growth is projected across all segments: Entertainment in the double digits, Sports around 18%, and Experiences about 8%. Long-term, the company is focusing on expanding its parks (including a new project in Abu Dhabi), growing its cruise fleet, and leveraging strong franchises such as Star Wars, Marvel, and Pixar. For ESPN, the emphasis is shifting towards digital services and partnerships, although management does not currently plan to spin off the division as a separate listed company.

Expert forecasts for The Walt Disney Company shares for 2025

• Barchart: 20 of 29 analysts rated Walt Disney shares as a Strong Buy, 2 as Moderate Buy, and 7 as a Hold. The upper price target stands at 152 USD, with the lower bound at 100 USD
• MarketBeat: 20 of 28 analysts assigned a Buy rating, while 8 recommended Hold. The upper price target is 147 USD, and the lower bound is 95 USD
• TipRanks: 19 of 22 analysts advised Buy, and 3 recommended Hold. The highest target is 152 USD, with the lowest at 123 USD
• Stock Analysis: 11 of 24 analysts rated the shares a Strong Buy, 7 a Buy, and 4 a Hold. The top-end forecast is 147 USD, and the lower end is 98 USD

None of the analysts recommended selling Walt Disney shares.

Fundamental analysis of The Walt Disney Company

Below is the fundamental analysis of DIS following the Q3 2025 financial results:

• Cash Flow: in Q3, operating cash flow (OCF) amounted to 3.67 billion USD and free cash flow (FCF) to 1.89 billion USD. Over the first nine months of FY2025, OCF totalled 13.63 billion USD and FCF 7.52 billion USD, with capital expenditure of 6.11 billion USD. This provides sufficient capacity both to invest in parks and cruises and to maintain shareholder distributions
• Liquidity and Balance Sheet: cash and equivalents stood at 5.37 billion USD. Total debt amounted to 42.26 billion USD (5.73 billion USD short-term and 36.53 billion USD long-term), with net debt of around 36.9 billion USD. Current assets were 23.82 billion USD versus current liabilities of 32.97 billion USD. Formally, the current ratio is low (c.0.72), but part of the liabilities relates to deferred revenue (typical for the sector), so there is no material liquidity risk, especially with positive FCF. Interest payments are relatively modest, with earnings covering interest expense more than 8–11 times. Credit ratings remain stable at the A level
• Profit Diversification: the main cash generator is the Experiences segment (parks, cruises, consumer products), which delivered 9.09 billion USD in revenue and 2.52 billion USD in profit. Entertainment generated 10.70 billion USD in revenue and 1.02 billion USD in profit, though results declined due to weakness in linear TV and the absence of major box office releases. By contrast, the digital business (Disney+ and Hulu) turned profitable, posting 6.18 billion USD in revenue (+6%) and 346 million USD in profit. Subscriber numbers are also rising: Disney+ has 127.8 million, while Hulu has 55.5 million. The Sports segment (ESPN) reported 4.31 billion USD in revenue and 1.04 billion USD in profit. In the US, ESPN faced higher costs for NBA rights, but overall results improved thanks to the absence of losses in India and more efficient distribution. This diversification enhances the resilience of the business
• Capital Return: over the first nine months of FY2025, the company allocated 2.50 billion USD to buybacks and 0.91 billion USD to dividends. With 1.8 billion shares outstanding, these payouts remain moderate and do not weaken the debt profile

Conclusion:

Disney’s financial position appears solid, and even above the sector average: the company generates stable and growing free cash flow, comfortably services its interest payments, holds A-level credit ratings, and earns profits across multiple business lines. Debt levels are moderate and well covered by current earnings. With the share price at 117 USD in September 2025, the stock trades around fair value. To lift its fundamental valuation, Disney must demonstrate that streaming can be monetised more rapidly (through higher ARPU, advertising, and subscriber retention) and confirm strong returns on investment in parks and cruise expansion. If these conditions are met, the shares offer potential upside from current levels.

The Walt Disney Company stock price forecast for 2025

The decline in Disney’s share price, which began in March 2021 from the 200 USD level, ended only in October 2023 at 80 USD. Previously, the shares had also fallen to this support level from 150 USD during the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, when governments imposed lockdowns and closed borders, sharply reducing attendance at Disney’s theme parks. This level clearly acts as a key support area for investors, where buying interest in the company’s shares typically emerges.

As of September 2025, DIS is trading within a range of 80 to 122 USD. In June, there was an attempt to break through the upper boundary of this range, but demand proved insufficient to overcome resistance. The Q3 FY2025 results were received negatively by investors, driving a decline in DIS shares. However, within twenty days, the negative impact was fully absorbed, and the shares once again approached the resistance area around 122 USD. Based on the Walt Disney Company’s stock performance, two possible forecasts for 2025 can be outlined:

Optimistic forecast for Walt Disney stock: a breakout above resistance at 122 USD, followed by an upward move towards the next resistance level at 158 USD.

Alternative forecast for Walt Disney shares: this scenario would apply if support at 112 USD is breached. DIS could then retreat to the lower boundary of the range around 80 USD. At present, however, there are no visible factors pointing to such a decline.

Risks of investing in The Walt Disney Company stock

Investing in Walt Disney’s shares may be attractive given the strength of its brand and diversified business model. However, there are certain risks that investors should consider:

• Dependence on consumer spending: Disney highly depends on revenues from entertainment-related sectors (theme parks, films, and streaming services). During economic downturns, consumers typically cut back on non-essential spending, such as entertainment, which negatively affects the company’s income
• Competition in media and streaming: the streaming market is highly saturated and diverse. While Disney+ has growth potential, retaining its current position requires substantial investments in content, which drives up costs. Since the company cannot focus solely on one type of business (unlike Netflix, where streaming is the primary source of revenue), there is a risk that its influence in this market could diminish
• Development costs and debt obligations: Disney invests in new projects, such as theme parks, streaming content, and technology. These investments increase the company’s debt burden. If interest rates rise in the US, refinancing debt would be more expensive, increasing the cost of servicing the debt and negatively impacting Disney’s overall profitability
• Brand and reputation risks: scandals involving the company’s management or products can damage its reputation. Decisions related to the release of films and series perceived as controversial could lead to rejection or even boycotts from certain audience segments

Disney’s shares can offer holders attractive long-term prospects, especially if the streaming business succeeds. However, investors must consider the abovementioned risks and diversify their portfolios accordingly.

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