Strong results and upgraded full-year forecast: how might Johnson & Johnson stock perform in 2025?

Johnson & Johnson’s Q2 2025 earnings exceeded market expectations, prompting the company to raise its full-year guidance for both revenue and earnings per share. Against this backdrop, the likelihood of a breakout above the upper boundary of the long-term trading range has increased, potentially pushing JNJ shares towards 194 USD.

Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) delivered robust Q2 results, reporting revenue of 23.74 billion USD and adjusted earnings per share of 2.77 USD – both figures came in ahead of analysts’ forecasts. Growth was once again led by the Innovative Medicine division, which generated 15.2 billion USD in sales, while the MedTech segment also outperformed expectations, posting revenue of 8.5 billion USD. The company raised its full-year revenue guidance to 93.2-93.6 billion USD, and its EPS forecast to 10.80-10.90 USD. Following the earnings release, JNJ shares climbed 6%, marking their strongest post-earnings rally in over a year. The upbeat outlook and investor response reflect a cautiously optimistic sentiment, increasing the probability of a breakout from the trading range in which JNJ shares have been moving since 2021.

This article provides a review of earnings results from Q2, Q3, and Q4 of 2024, as well as Q1 and Q2 of 2025. It also presents a technical analysis of JNJ shares, forming the basis of a 2025 stock forecast for Johnson & Johnson. Additionally, the article outlines the company’s business model, explains its revenue structure, and provides expert forecasts for JNJ stock in 2025.

About Johnson & Johnson

Founded in 1886 in the US, Johnson & Johnson manufactures medical products, pharmaceuticals, and health-related items, including personal care products and medical devices. J&J is renowned for its well-known brands, such as Band-Aid, Neutrogena, Tylenol, and others. The company went public in 1944 and is now one of the largest healthcare corporations in the world.

Johnson & Johnson’s business model

Johnson & Johnson is one of the world’s largest companies, engaged in the healthcare and consumer goods sector. It has a diversified business model and sells its products in three main segments:

• Pharmaceutical Segment: the main revenue stream is the sale of prescription drugs. The key areas include oncology, immunology, neurology, infectious diseases, cardiology, metabolism, and vaccines
• Medical Devices Segment: the main revenue stream comes from selling medical equipment and devices. The key areas include surgery, orthopaedics, interventional solutions, and eye surgery
• Consumer Health Segment: the main revenue stream is the sale of health and personal care products. The key areas include skin care products, baby products, oral care products, dietary supplements, and over-the-counter drugs

Johnson & Johnson’s business model is based on diversifying revenues across three segments, enabling the company to earn not only from pharmaceuticals but also from the production and sale of medical equipment.

The consumer segment is also a significant area for revenue diversification as it covers products sold outside medical centres that do not require prescriptions.

Johnson & Johnson Q2 2024 earnings report

Johnson & Johnson published its Q2 2024 report on 17 July 2024. In addition to the key financial metrics, the company disclosed segmental data for Innovative Medicine (including pharmaceuticals, health products, and personal care items) and MedTech (comprising medical devices and equipment). Below are the figures compared to the same period last year:

• Revenue: 22.45 billion USD (+4.3%)
• Net profit: 4.68 billion USD (-12.8%)
• Earnings per share: 2.82 USD (+10.2%)
• US: 8.51 billion USD (+8.9%)
• US: 8.51 billion USD (+8.9%)
• Rest of the world: 5.98 billion USD (+1.1%)

Johnson & Johnson’s management described its Q2 2024 results as strong. In particular, Chairman and CEO Joaquin Duato highlighted that the second-quarter figures reflect the company’s ongoing focus on advancing the next wave of medical innovations, which has driven significant sales growth and an adjustment in operating earnings per share. With a robust product portfolio, the integration of Shockwave, and the continued expansion of its pharmaceutical range, the company has a solid foundation for both short- and long-term growth.

Johnson & Johnson issued an upbeat outlook for 2024, expecting continued growth across its core segments – Innovative Medicine and MedTech.

The company projected full-year revenue between 89.30 and 90.30 billion USD, being a year-on-year increase of 4.0-5.0%. Earnings per share (EPS) were forecasted to range from 10.70 to 10.80 USD, marking a 2.5-3.5% increase compared to 2023.

Johnson & Johnson’s management emphasised that the company is well-positioned for long-term growth, supported by its diversified product portfolio and active investments in innovation.

Johnson & Johnson Q3 2024 earnings report

On 15 October 2024, Johnson & Johnson released its Q3 2024 results, showing revenues again exceeded those of the same period in 2023. Below are the key figures compared to Q3 2023:

• Revenue: 22.47 billion USD (+5.2%)
• Net profit: 2.69 billion USD (-37.5%)
• Earnings per share (EPS): 2.42 USD (-9.0%)
• US: 8.87 billion USD (+7.5%)
• US: 8.87 billion USD (+7.5%)
• Rest of the world: 5.70 billion USD (+1.2%)

Joaquin Duato stated that J&J’s Q3 2024 results reflect the distinct diversity of the company’s business model and J&J’s commitment to innovation in healthcare. He highlighted the progress in advancing treatments for diseases with high unmet needs, positioning J&J for sustainable growth.

The earnings commentary emphasised noteworthy progress in expanding the product portfolio, including regulatory approvals for TREMFYA in ulcerative colitis and combining RYBREVANT with LAZCLUZE for treating non-small cell lung cancer. It also mentioned the submission of an application for exclusive rights related to the development of the OTTAVA general-purpose robotic surgery system.

The company attributed the decline in net profit to one-off research and development expenses associated with the acquisition of M-Wave’s research outcomes.

Johnson & Johnson Q4 2024 earnings report

On 22 January 2025, Johnson & Johnson released its Q4 2024 results, which exceeded expectations, although the key indicator dynamics were mixed:

• Revenue: 22.52 billion USD (+5.3%)
• Net profit: 3.43 billion USD (-17.5%)
• Earnings per share (EPS): 2.04 USD (-10.9%)
• US: 8.97 billion USD (+11.1%)
• US: 8.97 billion USD (+11.1%)
• Rest of the world: 5.35 billion USD (-5.1%)

Joaquin Duato described 2024 as a "year of transformation" for Johnson & Johnson, highlighting robust growth and accelerated progress in the company’s product portfolio. J&J achieved annual sales of 88.80 billion USD and an EPS of 9.98 USD, representing growth compared to 2023, but was slightly below the forecast it provided in its Q2 2024 earnings commentary.

The decline in net profit was attributed to increased costs related to acquisitions, operating activities, adverse foreign exchange movements, and legal settlement expenses.

For 2025, the company provided a cautious outlook, expecting sales to range between 89.20 billion USD and 90.00 billion USD, below analysts’ expectations of 91.04 billion USD. The adjusted EPS forecast was set at 10.50-10.70 USD per market expectations.

Following the earnings release, J&J’s stock price declined, likely due to the conservative 2025 sales forecast.

Johnson & Johnson Q1 2025 earnings report

On 15 April 2025, Johnson & Johnson released its Q1 2025 results, which exceeded expectations. The key figures are presented below, compared to Q1 2024:

• Revenue: 21.89 billion USD (+2.4%)
• Net profit: 6.71 billion USD (+1.9%)
• Earnings per share (EPS): 2.77 USD (+2.2%)
• US: 8.09 billion USD (+6.3%)
• US: 8.09 billion USD (+6.3%)
• Rest of the world: 5.78 billion USD (–2.9%)

The company delivered strong results, beating Wall Street estimates for both earnings per share and revenue. This performance was supported by steady growth in the Innovative Medicine and MedTech segments. Johnson & Johnson’s ability to maintain robust performance despite challenges, such as biosimilar competition for Stelara and macroeconomic pressures in key markets, underscores its strategic resilience and operational effectiveness.

Johnson & Johnson continues to enhance its portfolio through strategic acquisitions. The 14.6 billion USD deal to acquire Intra-Cellular Therapies is nearing completion, strengthening J&J’s position in neurology. Progress in product development – including the approval of TREMFYA for the treatment of Crohn’s disease and positive clinical results for RYBREVANT in lung cancer therapy – reaffirms the company’s commitment to innovation. Additionally, the launch of clinical trials for the OTTAVA surgical robotic system positions J&J as a potential competitor to leading players in the medical technology sector, such as Intuitive Surgical.

From a financial perspective, Johnson & Johnson remains highly resilient. The company increased its quarterly dividend to 1.30 USD per share,

marking the 63rd consecutive year of dividend growth. It also raised its full-year 2025 revenue forecast to 91.0-91.8 billion USD, reflecting anticipated tariffs of around 400 million USD and the expected impact of the pending Intra-Cellular Therapies acquisition.

Nevertheless, certain challenges remain. The company continues to face legal risks related to talc-based product litigation and declining Stelara sales due to intensifying competition from biosimilars.

Johnson & Johnson Q2 2025 earnings report

Johnson & Johnson released its Q2 2025 earnings report on 16 July 2025, once again beating market expectations. The key metrics are outlined below, compared to Q2 2024:

• Revenue: 23.74 billion USD (+5.8%)
• Net income: 5.54 billion USD (+18.2%)
• Earnings per share: 2.77 USD (−1.8%)
• US: 9.16 billion USD (+7.6%)
• US: 9.16 billion USD (+7.6%)
• Rest of the world: 6.04 billion USD (+1.0%)

Johnson & Johnson delivered strong results for Q2 2025, surpassing market expectations. Revenue stood at 23.74 billion USD, marking a 5.8% year-on-year increase, while adjusted EPS reached 2.77 USD, significantly ahead of analyst forecasts. Management noted solid growth across both the Innovative Medicine and MedTech segments, with oncology and cardiovascular products standing out in particular. Darzalex once again exceeded expectations, delivering sales of 3.54 billion USD (+22%), and the MedTech division continued to expand, driven by electrophysiology and cardiovascular surgery, achieving double-digit growth.

A major positive development was the halving of projected tariff costs, from 400 million USD to 200 million USD, due to easing trade tensions. Johnson & Johnson is redirecting these savings into R&D and expanding its product portfolio, reflecting prudent capital allocation and a clear long-term strategy. Additional support for revenue also came from favourable currency effects.

The company is also making aggressive investments in oncology, aiming to reach 50 billion USD in revenue from this segment by 2030. It is actively advancing its pipeline in oncology, immunology, cardiology, and surgical robotics. These positive trends prompted management to raise its guidance for 2025: revenue is now expected in the range of 93.2–93.6 billion USD, and EPS in the range of 10.80–10.90 USD (previously 10.50–10.70 USD).

While the company did not issue guidance for Q3 2025, management’s overall positive tone and the upgraded full-year targets suggest continued growth momentum. Analysts currently forecast Q3 2025 EPS of around 2.75 USD and revenue of approximately 23.17 billion USD. Particular attention is being placed on new product lines and further expansion of the MedTech and Innovative Medicine segments.

As of July 2025, Johnson & Johnson shares are trading at 164 USD, appearing fairly valued (forward P/E of approximately 15, dividend yield around 3%). The company’s financials remain solid: operating margin stands at 25.3%, free cash flow for H1 totalled 6.2 billion USD, and the debt-to-equity ratio is just 0.67. These metrics, combined with the upgraded revenue and EPS guidance for 2025, enhance the stock’s investment appeal, especially for income-focused investors seeking stable growth.

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Arguments in favour of investing in JNJ stock

• Drug portfolio: Johnson & Johnson has a broad and diversified drug portfolio that spans various therapeutic areas, including oncology, immunology, neurology, infectious and cardiovascular diseases. Their critical importance to patients ensures steady demand, making revenues from these medicines less susceptible to economic fluctuations and more sustainable in the long term
• JNJ stock is a dividend aristocrat, having increased dividend payouts for over 50 consecutive years. This makes the company’s shares attractive to long-term investors, particularly those seeking stable earnings. The company’s robust dividend policy demonstrates its financial stability and confidence in future earnings, which is important for investors focused on stable and predictable investments
• Recognisable brand: Johnson & Johnson is one of the world’s most recognisable brands, and it is associated with quality and safety. With its long history and market credibility, the company has earned the unique trust of consumers and medical professionals. This brand equity plays an important role in maintaining and expanding the company’s market share and successfully introducing new products. Brand recognition also helps J&J compete well and maintain elevated levels of loyalty among consumers

Arguments against investing in JNJ stock

• Intense competition: the pharmaceutical sector is highly competitive. Johnson & Johnson faces serious rivals, including Merck & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MRK), Novartis AG (NYSE: NVS), and Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE), among others, which are also actively developing new drugs and solutions to treat diseases. Competitors may offer more effective or less expensive alternatives, which could reduce J&J’s market share and exert pressure on prices, ultimately affecting the company’s margins and profitability
• Expiry of drug licences: like other pharmaceutical companies, Johnson & Johnson runs the risk of patent expiration on key drugs. When patents expire, the company loses the exclusive right to sell these drugs, and generic products enter the market, slashing prices and revenues from these products. The expiry of patent protection for crucial drugs may result in significant revenue losses unless the company can offset them with new products
• High research and development costs: innovation in the pharmaceutical and medical industry requires significant investment in research and development (R&D). Johnson & Johnson’s R&D costs reached approximately 17.00 billion USD in 2024, accounting for 20% of total revenues. High spending is necessary to maintain competitiveness and develop new products, but it also comes with increased risks. Research does not always meet expectations, and clinical trials can fail, leading to substantial losses

Expert forecasts for Johnson & Johnson stock for 2025

• Barchart: nine out of 23 analysts rated Johnson & Johnson’s shares as a Strong Buy, two as Buy, and 12 as Hold. The forecast range spans from 155 USD to 190 USD
• MarketBeat: 10 out of 21 analysts gave the stock a Buy rating and eleven recommended Hold. The forecast range is 150 USD to 215 USD
• TipRanks: eight out of 18 professionals recommended Buy, and 10 recommended Hold. The forecast range is 160 USD to 190 USD
• Stock Analysis: three out of 15 experts rated the shares as a Strong Buy, four as a Buy, and eight as Hold. The forecast range is 150 USD to 215 USD

None of the experts recommended selling Johnson & Johnson shares.

Johnson & Johnson stock price forecast for 2025

During the coronavirus pandemic, the pharmaceutical sector saw notable growth, and Johnson & Johnson’s shares rose in tandem. However, by 2021, investor interest in this sector had cooled, and since then, Johnson & Johnson shares have traded within a sideways range between 140 USD and 167 USD.

In the short term, the company lacks clear growth catalysts. At the same time, long-standing legal uncertainty persists due to talc-related lawsuits, which are likely to require financial settlements – a factor that continues to deter some investors.

Nevertheless, Johnson & Johnson shares remain attractive to those seeking stability and dividends. The company traditionally supports its shareholders with regular dividend payments and a share buyback program valued at 10 billion USD.

Following the quarterly report’s release, Johnson & Johnson’s share price rose by 6% – possibly on a wave of optimism that could help the stock break above the upper boundary of its range, potentially marking the beginning of a further upward trend. Based on the current Johnson & Johnson stock performance, the possible movements of Johnson & Johnson’s share price in 2025 are as follows:

The optimistic forecast for Johnson & Johnson shares assumes a breakout above resistance at 167 USD, followed by a rise equal to the height of the range, up to 194 USD. This scenario could materialise if the positive momentum continues, particularly after the recent quarterly report, in which management, among other things, raised the company’s full-year revenue and earnings forecasts for 2025.

The alternative forecast for Johnson & Johnson stock assumes a rejection at resistance around 167 USD. In this case, the share price may return to the lower boundary of the range at 140 USD. However, the last two declines towards the 140 USD support level were followed by sharp rebounds – that is, investors have been quick to buy the stock, preventing it from lingering near 140 USD for long.