DE 40 forecast: the trend has shifted to downward

The DE 40 stock index reached a new all-time high but has since entered a downtrend. The DE 40 forecast for today is negative.

DE 40 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: Germany’s trade balance for September 2025 stood at 17.2 billion EUR
• Market impact: while the data creates a moderately positive backdrop for German equities, the renewed escalation of the US-China trade war exerts a stronger negative influence

DE 40 fundamental analysis

Germany’s trade balance for October 2025 showed a surplus of 17.2 billion EUR, significantly exceeding both the forecast of 15.1 billion EUR and the previous reading of 14.7 billion EUR. The increase in the trade surplus indicates stronger export activity and competitiveness of German companies in global markets. This reflects steady external demand and may indicate an improvement in the country’s industrial sector – a cornerstone of Germany’s economy. For investors, this is a positive signal, as rising export revenues tend to support corporate profits, particularly in the machinery, automotive, and chemical industries.

For the DE 40 index, which tracks the performance of major German corporations, the data is broadly positive. However, global sentiment remains overshadowed by renewed tensions between the United States and China. In response to US export restrictions on semiconductors, China imposed a ban on the export of technologies related to rare-earth materials extraction and processing – key components in chip manufacturing. In turn, the US announced a 100% tariff on Chinese imports, on top of existing duties. This escalation has triggered a broad market sell-off worldwide, which is expected to persist through the end of the week. Only a potential easing of US-China relations could reverse the current trend.

DE 40 technical analysis

The DE 40 index has established resistance at 24,653.0 and broken below the 24,300.0 support level, entering a downtrend. It is too early to assess how long it might last. Only a recovery above the 24,300.0 level would signal a potential resumption of upward momentum.

The DE 40 price forecast considers the following scenarios:

• Pessimistic DE 40 scenario: if the price consolidates below the previously breached support level at 23,400.0, the index could fall to 23,875.0
• Optimistic DE 40 scenario: a breakout above the 24,653.0 resistance level could push the index to 25,020.0

Summary

The strong trade balance data has a moderately positive effect on the DE 40. The growing external surplus supports export-oriented companies, which make up a significant portion of the index, and bolsters investor confidence in Germany’s economic stability. In the long term, this may lead to growth or consolidation of the index. However, in the short term, external geopolitical and trade factors dominate sentiment, leading to continued downward pressure on the index. The next downside target for the DE 40 could be 23,875.0.

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