USDJPY rises to 147.65: tariffs and data weigh on the yen

The USDJPY pair continues to climb as the market reacts to trade-related risks. Find more details in our analysis for 15 July 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• The USDJPY pair continues to rise, hitting fresh two-month highs
• Further details on tariffs and Japanese economic data will provide more insight into yen movements
• USDJPY forecast for 15 July 2025: 148.00

Fundamental analysis

On Tuesday, the USDJPY rate rose to 147.65, marking a new two-month high, as trade risks from new US measures persist.

Washington plans to impose 25% tariffs on Japanese goods starting 1 August, while Tokyo has yet to announce any retaliatory action. Negotiations between the two parties have effectively stalled. One Japanese official warned of potential economic consequences if the tariffs are enforced.

Investors now await upcoming trade and inflation data from Japan, which will help assess the scale of pressure on the domestic economy. In addition, market focus also turns to the US inflation report, which could influence the Federal Reserve's future rate decisions.

The USDJPY forecast is positive.

USDJPY technical analysis

On the H4 chart, the USDJPY pair is clearly in a strong uptrend since 3 July 2025. Following a period of consolidation between 144.00 and 146.00, with a local bottom formed near 144.00, the yen has lost ground rapidly. USD has strengthened to 147.65 and now approaches the key resistance level of 148.00.

The price confidently trades above the middle Bollinger Band, confirming upside momentum. The nearest support level lies at 147.18, followed by 145.73. If the price breaks above the 148.00 level, the upward wave will likely extend towards new highs.

From a technical standpoint, the outlook remains bullish. Each dip gets bought back, and the upper Bollinger Band is expanding. However, the 148.00 level may act as a short-term barrier to further gains.

Summary

The USDJPY pair has risen significantly and retains the potential to climb further. The USDJPY forecast for today, 15 July 2025, suggests a possible test of the 148.00 level.